Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 69?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists43 × 1+43
- PP points25 × 0.5+12.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots193 × 0.1+19.3
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)2007 × 0.01+20.1
- total115 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166115 = 69/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 115 points is 69 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −4.5
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 2.2% shooting on 46 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.5% (448 shots before this season) — that's 2.4 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.4 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.2%, worth PD −4.5 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:29 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 82 | 6 | 27 | 33 | -3 | 21 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19:06 | 2 | 1 | 101 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 73 | 6 | 31 | 37 | 9 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17:18 | 0 | 0 | 108 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 73 | 22 | 48 | 70 | 21 | 72 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 22:42 | 6 | 1 | 212 | 10.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -11 | 12 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 23:59 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 6 | 43 | 49 | — | 39 | — | 26 | — | 22:05 | — | — | 157 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Darren Raddysh (2025-25) · Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 04:05 | EV | Assist | #? (MacEwen, Raddysh) → 1-1 | Nylander · MacEwen Mermis · Raddysh | Foligno · Ek · Boldy Bogosian · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 03:33 | EV | Goal | #? (Matthews, Roslovic) → 1-0 | Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan McCabe | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Burns · Juulsen Blackwood (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Cowan, Raddysh) → 3-3 | Matthews · Cowan McCabe · Raddysh | Landeskog · MacKinnon · Roy Kulak · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs MTL | |||||
| P3 06:19 | PP | Assist | #? (Raddysh, Matthews) → 1-3 | Tavares · Roslovic · Matthews Raddysh | Dach · Newhook Dobson · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 03:47 | EV | Assist | #? (Raddysh, Roslovic) → 2-1 | Nylander · Roslovic McCabe · Raddysh | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson Hronek · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Darren over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCabe TOR | 137 | 10 | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | 127 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 104 | 10 | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 95 | 9 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 77 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats