Easton Cowan
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 65?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots172 × 0.1+17.2
- PIM76 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1329 × 0.01+13.3
- total157 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242157 = 65/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 157 points is 65 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 3.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 10.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.1% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (92 shots before this season) — that's 1.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.6%, worth PD +2.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 66 | 11 | 18 | 29 | -5 | 45 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 14:43 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 12.0% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:57 | 2 | 0 | 42 | 16.7% | 40.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 27 | 36 | 64 | — | 63 | — | 6 | — | 15:35 | — | — | 158 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P2 19:31 | EV | Goal | #? (McKenna, Paul) → 2-3 | Paul · Tverberg · McKenna Ekman-Larsson | Necas · Kelly · O'Connor Kulak · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| P3 04:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Cowan, Raddysh) → 3-3 | Matthews · Cowan McCabe · Raddysh | Landeskog · MacKinnon · Roy Kulak · Makar Blackwood (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ SEA | |||||
| P3 08:02 | EV | Assist | Roslovic (Cowan, Stecher) → 3-4 | Cowan · Roslovic Stecher · Ekman-Larsson | Meyers · Gaudreau Larsson · Dunn Grubauer (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 12:54 | EV | Goal | Cowan (Stecher, Rielly) → 1-3 | Sissons · Cowan · McKenna Stecher · Rielly | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Parekh · Kuznetsov Cooley (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 05:29 | EV | Assist | Matthews (Cowan, Roslovic) → 2-0 | Matthews · Cowan · Roslovic McCabe · Mermis · Raddysh | Draisaitl · Podkolzin · McDavid Murphy · Shea Jarry (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Easton over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews TOR | 89 | 10 | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 80 | 9 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 77 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 63 | 10 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats