Jake McCabe
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 28?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists13 × 1+13
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1687 × 0.01+16.9
- total46 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16646 = 28/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 46 points is 28 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.6% (554 shots before this season) — that's 1.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 4.2%, worth PD −1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013-14 | Sabres | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2014-15 | Sabres | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:08 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 77 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0 | 0 | 62 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 76 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -7 | 26 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 20:42 | 1 | 0 | 79 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 53 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 26 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:30 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 59 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 35 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:57 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 66 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -11 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 18:32 | 1 | 0 | 75 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 13 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 75 | 4 | 18 | 22 | -27 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:18 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Blackhawks | 55 | 2 | 18 | 20 | 7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:29 | 1 | 0 | 67 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:28 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 73 | 8 | 20 | 28 | 20 | 56 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 20:39 | 3 | 1 | 73 | 11.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 66 | 2 | 21 | 23 | 23 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:31 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 2.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 5 | 20 | 25 | 3 | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:24 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:03 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 2 | 13 | 15 | — | 34 | — | 0 | — | 19:42 | — | — | 92 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brett Pesce (2025-25) · Erik Gudbranson (2025-25) · Jaccob Slavin (2025-25) · Erik Cernak (2025-25) · Connor Clifton (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P1 01:23 | EV | Assist | #? (#?, #?) → 1-0 | Sissons · Joshua Ekman-Larsson · Stecher | O'Connor · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Willander Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 17:56 | EV | Assist | Nylander (McCabe) → 6-2 | Sissons · Matthews · Nylander McCabe · Stecher | Hyman · Draisaitl · Nugent-Hopkins · McDavid Bouchard · Shea |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 01:36 | EV | Assist | Cowan (McCabe, Roslovic) → 1-0 | Matthews · Cowan · Roslovic McCabe · Raddysh | Lafrenière · Kartye · Zibanejad · Perreault Durzi · Pettersson Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 137 | 10 | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | 71 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 63 | 10 | |
| Teddy Blueger TOR | 60 | 10 | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 57 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats