Auston Matthews
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 97?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals36 × 3+108
- proj assists55 × 1+55
- PP points42 × 0.5+21
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals4 × 0.25+1
- shots260 × 0.1+26
- PIM25 × 0.05+1.3
- ice time (min)1721 × 0.01+17.2
- total234 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242234 = 97/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 234 points is 97 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.7% shooting on 62 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.3% (2295 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (9.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.5%, worth PD +3.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 40 | 29 | 69 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 17:38 | 8 | 1 | 279 | 14.3% | 46.8% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 62 | 34 | 29 | 63 | 25 | 12 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 18:08 | 5 | 2 | 187 | 18.2% | 54.5% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 68 | 37 | 36 | 73 | -9 | 12 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 18:33 | 5 | 2 | 251 | 14.7% | 52.1% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 70 | 47 | 33 | 80 | 19 | 8 | 12 | 25 | 0 | 20:58 | 5 | 0 | 290 | 16.2% | 55.0% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 52 | 41 | 25 | 66 | 21 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 0 | 21:33 | 12 | 2 | 222 | 18.5% | 51.9% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 73 | 60 | 46 | 106 | 20 | 18 | 16 | 29 | 0 | 20:37 | 10 | 2 | 348 | 17.2% | 56.2% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 74 | 40 | 45 | 85 | 31 | 20 | 13 | 28 | 0 | 20:17 | 8 | 0 | 327 | 12.2% | 52.4% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 81 | 69 | 38 | 107 | 31 | 20 | 18 | 29 | 0 | 20:58 | 8 | 3 | 369 | 18.7% | 53.4% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 67 | 33 | 45 | 78 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 25 | 2 | 20:28 | 2 | 1 | 261 | 12.6% | 56.8% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 60 | 27 | 26 | 53 | -4 | 18 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 20:48 | 3 | 1 | 227 | 11.9% | 59.7% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 12 | 17 | 29 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 20:33 | 2 | 1 | 64 | 18.8% | 54.5% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 36 | 55 | 91 | — | 32 | — | 24 | — | 18:30 | — | — | 209 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 04:05 | EV | Goal | #? (MacEwen, Raddysh) → 1-1 | Nylander · MacEwen Mermis · Raddysh | Foligno · Ek · Boldy Bogosian · Hughes Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 10 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 03:33 | EV | Assist | #? (Matthews, Roslovic) → 1-0 | Roslovic · Matthews · Cowan McCabe | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Burns · Juulsen Blackwood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs MTL | |||||
| P3 06:19 | PP | Assist | #? (Raddysh, Matthews) → 1-3 | Tavares · Roslovic · Matthews Raddysh | Dach · Newhook Dobson · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 10:20 | EV | Assist | #? (Matthews) → 1-1 | Matthews · Cowan Rielly · Stecher | Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther Peeke · DeSimone Cossa (G) |
| P3 09:05 | EV | Assist | #? (Matthews, Rielly) → 2-2 | Matthews · Cowan Rielly · Stecher | Trocheck · Crouse · Carcone Schmidt · Peeke Cossa (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Auston over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 139 | 9 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 127 | 10 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 95 | 10 | |
| Easton Cowan TOR | 89 | 10 | |
| Jake McCabe TOR | 71 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats