William Nylander
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 90?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals39 × 3+117
- proj assists42 × 1+42
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots235 × 0.1+23.5
- PIM17 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1675 × 0.01+16.8
- total217 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242217 = 90/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 217 points is 90 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for TOR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.6% shooting on 56 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (1918 shots before this season) — that's 3.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (7.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.6%, worth PD +6.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Raddysh 2.2%, Matthews 17.7%, Roslovic 17.6%, Tavares 9.1%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Maple Leafs | 22 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:20 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 14.0% | 49.1% |
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 81 | 22 | 39 | 61 | -3 | 32 | 9 | 26 | 0 | 16:01 | 2 | 0 | 205 | 10.7% | 40.2% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 20 | 41 | 61 | 20 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 16:41 | 8 | 2 | 184 | 10.9% | 51.4% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 54 | 7 | 20 | 27 | -4 | 16 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15:31 | 0 | 0 | 130 | 5.4% | 55.2% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 68 | 31 | 28 | 59 | -2 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 18:13 | 7 | 1 | 197 | 15.7% | 50.0% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 51 | 17 | 25 | 42 | 10 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 16:36 | 2 | 1 | 133 | 12.8% | 56.5% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 81 | 34 | 46 | 80 | -9 | 16 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 18:16 | 7 | 2 | 256 | 13.3% | 52.3% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 40 | 47 | 87 | 10 | 28 | 9 | 28 | 0 | 18:33 | 5 | 3 | 293 | 13.7% | 42.4% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 40 | 58 | 98 | 1 | 24 | 11 | 35 | 3 | 19:55 | 7 | 2 | 316 | 12.7% | 47.1% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 45 | 39 | 84 | 10 | 26 | 12 | 30 | 0 | 19:31 | 8 | 2 | 253 | 17.8% | 49.7% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 65 | 30 | 49 | 79 | -14 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 19:25 | 4 | 3 | 156 | 19.2% | 38.3% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 21 | 11 | 11 | 22 | -8 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 20:02 | 0 | 0 | 57 | 19.3% | 34.6% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 39 | 42 | 81 | — | 27 | — | 26 | — | 18:09 | — | — | 195 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kirill Kaprizov (2025-25) · William Nylander (2025-25) · Jason Robertson (2025-25) · Sidney Crosby (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs MTL | |||||
| P3 06:19 | PP | Goal | #? (Raddysh, Matthews) → 1-3 | Tavares · Roslovic · Matthews Raddysh | Dach · Newhook Dobson · Engstrom Fowler (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ VAN | |||||
| P1 01:23 | EV | Goal | #? (#?, #?) → 1-0 | Sissons · Joshua Ekman-Larsson · Stecher | O'Connor · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Oleksiak · Willander Merilainen (G) |
| P3 18:24 | EV | Assist | #? (Nylander, Stolarz) → 4-2 | Nylander · Matthews Tanev · McCabe | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi Hronek Merilainen (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ CGY | |||||
| P3 06:06 | EV | Goal | Nylander (Roslovic, Matthews) → 2-3 | Matthews · Nylander · Roslovic Mermis · Raddysh | Backlund · Strome · Othmann Bahl · Nemec Cooley (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 17:56 | EV | Goal | Nylander (McCabe) → 6-2 | Sissons · Matthews · Nylander McCabe · Stecher | Hyman · Draisaitl · Nugent-Hopkins · McDavid Bouchard · Shea |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with William over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 104 | 10 | |
| Auston Matthews TOR | 95 | 10 | |
| Jack Roslovic TOR | 63 | 9 | |
| John Tavares TOR | 60 | 5 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats