John Tavares
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 55?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points34 × 0.5+17
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots185 × 0.1+18.5
- PIM34 × 0.05+1.7
- ice time (min)1422 × 0.01+14.2
- total134 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242134 = 55/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 134 points is 55 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (10 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 6 of 16 for TOR — missed 10 games (2026-10-26, 2026-10-28, 2026-10-31, 2026-11-03, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
- Veteran card: age 36 — minutes and back-to-back load worth watching down the stretch.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.1% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.9% (2088 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.6%, worth PD −2.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-10 | Islanders | 82 | 24 | 30 | 54 | -15 | 22 | 11 | 25 | 0 | 18:00 | 2 | 0 | 186 | 12.9% | 47.5% |
| 2010-11 | Islanders | 79 | 29 | 38 | 67 | -16 | 53 | 9 | 24 | 0 | 19:15 | 4 | 3 | 243 | 11.9% | 52.5% |
| 2011-12 | Islanders | 82 | 31 | 50 | 81 | -6 | 26 | 7 | 25 | 0 | 20:34 | 8 | 1 | 286 | 10.8% | 51.3% |
| 2012-13 | Islanders | 48 | 28 | 19 | 47 | -2 | 18 | 9 | 16 | 0 | 20:46 | 5 | 0 | 162 | 17.3% | 49.4% |
| 2013-14 | Islanders | 59 | 24 | 42 | 66 | -6 | 40 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 21:15 | 4 | 0 | 188 | 12.8% | 49.1% |
| 2014-15 | Islanders | 82 | 38 | 48 | 86 | 5 | 46 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 20:40 | 8 | 4 | 278 | 13.7% | 52.2% |
| 2015-16 | Islanders | 78 | 33 | 37 | 70 | 6 | 38 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 20:00 | 5 | 0 | 250 | 13.2% | 54.1% |
| 2016-17 | Islanders | 77 | 28 | 38 | 66 | 4 | 38 | 7 | 18 | 1 | 20:25 | 3 | 1 | 260 | 10.8% | 50.6% |
| 2017-18 | Islanders | 82 | 37 | 47 | 84 | -12 | 26 | 12 | 30 | 2 | 19:56 | 3 | 2 | 257 | 14.4% | 52.9% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 47 | 41 | 88 | 19 | 34 | 10 | 19 | 0 | 19:05 | 8 | 1 | 286 | 16.4% | 54.4% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 63 | 26 | 34 | 60 | -7 | 24 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 19:33 | 4 | 3 | 197 | 13.2% | 55.3% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 56 | 19 | 31 | 50 | 12 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 18:12 | 2 | 0 | 163 | 11.7% | 55.3% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 79 | 27 | 49 | 76 | -8 | 32 | 10 | 26 | 0 | 18:04 | 3 | 0 | 237 | 11.4% | 60.6% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 36 | 44 | 80 | -7 | 34 | 18 | 39 | 0 | 17:39 | 9 | 1 | 277 | 13.0% | 58.3% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 29 | 36 | 65 | 2 | 30 | 9 | 20 | 0 | 17:52 | 6 | 1 | 279 | 10.4% | 59.3% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 75 | 38 | 36 | 74 | 10 | 46 | 12 | 20 | 0 | 18:14 | 8 | 1 | 200 | 19.0% | 58.3% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 31 | 40 | 71 | -28 | 28 | 12 | 21 | 0 | 18:11 | 4 | 2 | 192 | 16.1% | 57.5% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 11 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -13 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 16:55 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 8.0% | 54.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 17 | 32 | 49 | — | 39 | — | 23 | — | 15:58 | — | — | 158 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 36 that is -6%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 5 of 6 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 · vs BUF | |||||
| P1 13:10 | PP | Assist | Marchenko (Tavares, Raddysh) → 2-1 | Tavares · Nylander · Matthews · Marchenko Raddysh | Malenstyn · Danforth Samuelsson · Power Luukkonen (G) |
| P2 11:13 | EV | Assist | Marchenko (Tavares) → 3-2 | Tavares · Paul · Marchenko Ekman-Larsson · Raddysh | Norris · Krebs · Helenius Power · Metsa Luukkonen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with John over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander TOR | 109 | 9 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 80 | 9 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson TOR | 43 | 9 | |
| Kirill Marchenko TOR | 42 | 5 | |
| Troy Stecher TOR | 41 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats