Kirill Marchenko
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 81?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals31 × 3+93
- proj assists42 × 1+42
- PP points48 × 0.5+24
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots210 × 0.1+21
- PIM48 × 0.05+2.4
- ice time (min)1479 × 0.01+14.8
- total197 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242197 = 81/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 197 points is 81 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Did not play the last 7 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 9 of 16 for TOR — missed 7 games (2026-11-07, 2026-11-08, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.1% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.6% (749 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +2.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Blue Jackets | 59 | 21 | 4 | 25 | -23 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 16:11 | 1 | 1 | 131 | 16.0% | 56.3% |
| 2023-24 | Blue Jackets | 78 | 23 | 19 | 42 | -5 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 0 | 16:25 | 1 | 0 | 193 | 11.9% | 32.9% |
| 2024-25 | Blue Jackets | 79 | 31 | 43 | 74 | 29 | 20 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 18:35 | 2 | 1 | 207 | 15.0% | 31.7% |
| 2025-26 | Blue Jackets | 76 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 7 | 32 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 18:57 | 7 | 1 | 218 | 12.4% | 50.0% |
| 2026-27 | Maple Leafs | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -3 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 17:37 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 17.1% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Maple Leafs | 84 | 31 | 42 | 73 | — | 46 | — | 31 | — | 16:29 | — | — | 173 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Matt Boldy (2025-25) · Brandon Hagel (2025-25) · Roope Hintz (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 7 of 9 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 06:23 | EV | Assist | Stecher (Marchenko, Rielly) → 3-0 | Paul · Marchenko · Nylander Stecher · Rielly | Hallander · Kapanen · Nugent-Hopkins Emberson · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| P3 05:59 | PP | Assist | Nylander (Raddysh, Marchenko) → 4-1 | Matthews · Marchenko · Nylander · McKenna Raddysh | Michaels · McDavid Murphy · Walman Jarry (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 19:09 | PP | Goal | Marchenko (McKenna, Nylander) → 4-3 | Matthews · Marchenko · Nylander · McKenna Raddysh | Miller · Kartye Fox · Pettersson Garand (G) |
| Oct 20 · @ CBJ | |||||
| P1 08:16 | PP | Goal | Marchenko (Matthews, Nylander) → 1-1 | Nylander · Matthews · Marchenko · McKenna Raddysh | Coyle · Olivier Gudbranson · Mateychuk Greaves (G) |
| Oct 19 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 19:48 | PP | Assist | Matthews (Marchenko, Raddysh) → 1-1 | Nylander · Matthews · Marchenko · McKenna Raddysh | Goodrow · Graf Trouba · Nurse Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Kirill over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews TOR | 89 | 9 | |
| Darren Raddysh TOR | 84 | 9 | |
| William Nylander TOR | 70 | 9 | |
| Morgan Rielly TOR | 58 | 9 | |
| Nick Paul TOR | 48 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats