Shea Theodore
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 54?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots155 × 0.1+15.5
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1853 × 0.01+18.5
- total90 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16690 = 54/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 90 points is 54 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.4% shooting on 37 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.9% (1430 shots before this season) — that's 0.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.7%, worth PD −0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Ducks | 19 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 19:07 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 2016-17 | Ducks | 34 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -6 | 28 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:19 | 1 | 1 | 60 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 61 | 6 | 23 | 29 | 5 | 14 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 20:21 | 1 | 0 | 144 | 4.2% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 79 | 12 | 25 | 37 | -4 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | 202 | 5.9% | 100.0% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 71 | 13 | 33 | 46 | 12 | 25 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 22:14 | 4 | 2 | 219 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 53 | 8 | 34 | 42 | 28 | 14 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 22:33 | 0 | 0 | 161 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 78 | 14 | 38 | 52 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 23:08 | 5 | 3 | 205 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 55 | 8 | 33 | 41 | 16 | 18 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 21:26 | 2 | 1 | 136 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 47 | 5 | 37 | 42 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 0 | 22:05 | 1 | 0 | 105 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 67 | 7 | 50 | 57 | 18 | 26 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 22:00 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 70 | 10 | 29 | 39 | 19 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 22:50 | 3 | 0 | 130 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 22:04 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 9 | 25 | 34 | — | 22 | — | 6 | — | 20:56 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 31 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan McDonagh (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Sean Durzi (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 04:51 | EV | Assist | #? (Olofsson, Theodore) → 3-1 | Hertl · Olofsson McNabb · Theodore | Crouse · McBain · But Peeke · Simashev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 10:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Barbashev, Theodore) → 4-1 | Barbashev · Olofsson McNabb · Theodore | Thompson · Krebs · Benson Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs OTT | |||||
| P2 19:49 | PP | Assist | Bowman (Barbashev, Theodore) → 1-0 | Eichel · Bowman · Barbashev · Karlsson Lauzon · Theodore | Pinto · Stützle Zub · Sanderson Johansson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Shea over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden McNabb VGK | 179 | 10 | |
| William Karlsson VGK | 72 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 70 | 10 | |
| Ivan Barbashev VGK | 69 | 10 | |
| Mark Stone VGK | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats