Jack Eichel
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 89?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals32 × 3+96
- proj assists57 × 1+57
- PP points42 × 0.5+21
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots210 × 0.1+21
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1690 × 0.01+16.9
- total216 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242216 = 89/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 216 points is 89 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 18.0% shooting on 50 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.3% (1964 shots before this season) — that's 3.4 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.6 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.3%, worth PD +6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Stone 27.0%, Theodore 5.4%, Barbashev 15.4%, McNabb 0.0%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Sabres | 81 | 24 | 32 | 56 | -16 | 22 | 8 | 21 | 0 | 19:07 | 5 | 1 | 238 | 10.1% | 41.0% |
| 2016-17 | Sabres | 61 | 24 | 33 | 57 | -13 | 22 | 10 | 24 | 0 | 19:55 | 4 | 1 | 249 | 9.6% | 38.9% |
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 67 | 25 | 39 | 64 | -25 | 32 | 3 | 20 | 0 | 20:09 | 4 | 1 | 246 | 10.2% | 41.5% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 77 | 28 | 54 | 82 | -11 | 26 | 8 | 26 | 0 | 20:26 | 2 | 2 | 303 | 9.2% | 47.0% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 68 | 36 | 42 | 78 | 5 | 34 | 11 | 27 | 1 | 22:06 | 9 | 3 | 227 | 15.9% | 46.8% |
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 21 | 2 | 16 | 18 | -9 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 20:30 | 1 | 0 | 61 | 3.3% | 49.7% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 34 | 14 | 11 | 25 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 19:24 | 2 | 0 | 133 | 10.5% | 48.5% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 67 | 27 | 39 | 66 | 26 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 18:46 | 2 | 1 | 223 | 12.1% | 45.3% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 63 | 31 | 37 | 68 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 20:31 | 7 | 2 | 278 | 11.2% | 45.5% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 77 | 28 | 66 | 94 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 34 | 1 | 20:32 | 3 | 0 | 233 | 12.0% | 45.6% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 74 | 27 | 63 | 90 | 23 | 18 | 1 | 28 | 1 | 21:12 | 6 | 3 | 260 | 10.4% | 47.7% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 9 | 17 | 26 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 20:07 | 2 | 0 | 50 | 18.0% | 45.6% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 32 | 57 | 90 | — | 22 | — | 33 | — | 18:16 | — | — | 182 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Matthew Tkachuk (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · David Pastrnak (2025-25) · Jack Hughes (2025-25) · Jack Eichel (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 02:15 | PP | Goal | #? (Marner, Stone) → 1-0 | Stone · Hertl · Olofsson · Marner | Trocheck · McBain Peeke · DeSimone Cossa (G) |
| P2 03:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Eichel, Marner) → 2-1 | Stone · Hertl · Eichel · Marner | Trocheck · McBain Weegar · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BUF | |||||
| P2 13:43 | EV | Goal | #? (Barbashev) → 2-0 | Stone · Barbashev McNabb · Theodore | Zucker · Quinn · Ostlund Dahlin · Power Ellis (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ DET | |||||
| P3 18:18 | EV | Assist | #? (Eichel, Andersson) → 2-1 | Stone · Eichel Hanifin · Andersson | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
| Nov 3 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 16:36 | PP | Assist | #? (Marner, Eichel) → 1-0 | Stone · Eichel · Marner · Connelly | Rakell · Robertson Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jack over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone VGK | 162 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 70 | 10 | |
| Ivan Barbashev VGK | 69 | 10 | |
| Brayden McNabb VGK | 67 | 10 | |
| Trevor Connelly VGK | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats