Trevor Connelly
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 58?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots151 × 0.1+15.1
- PIM8 × 0.05+0.4
- ice time (min)1202 × 0.01+12
- total141 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242141 = 58/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 141 points is 58 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.3
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.4% shooting on 36 shots against a league forward baseline of 13.5% — no career track record yet — that's 2.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.9 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.8%, worth PD +3.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Hertl 18.4%, Eichel 18.0%, Stone 27.0%, Andersson 5.7%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line is our public model’s season-length forecast — frozen 2026-11-13, the day this projection was first published — it does not slide with later results; methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 21 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:23 | 1 | 0 | 40 | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 27 | 24 | 51 | — | 22 | — | 9 | — | 14:38 | — | — | 145 | — | — |
84-G proj — pace at first publication blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project. Skater model pace-2026.11.13 — last model update Nov 13, 2026.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 12 of 14 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 5 · @ DETW 2-11 G0 A1 PTS2 SOG+1 ±11:19 TOI | |||||
| P3 18:18 | EV | Goal | Connelly (Eichel, Andersson) → 2-1 | Stone · Eichel · Connelly Hanifin · Andersson | Compher · Rasmussen · Danielson Chiarot · Seider Tarasov (G) |
Nov 3 · @ PITW 3-21 G0 A1 PTS4 SOG+1 ±14:26 TOI | |||||
| P3 11:19 | EV | Goal | Connelly (Lauzon) → 2-2 | Hertl · Connelly McNabb · Andersson · Lauzon | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Nov 2 · @ BOSL 2-31 G0 A1 PTS1 SOG+1 ±14:17 TOI | |||||
| P3 07:23 | EV | Goal | Connelly (Hanifin, Marner) → 2-2 | Karlsson · Marner · Connelly Hanifin · Coghlan | Zacha · Geekie · Khusnutdinov Aspirot · Lohrei Swayman (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Trevor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl VGK | 75 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 65 | 10 | |
| Mark Stone VGK | 60 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 49 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats