William Karlsson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists20 × 1+20
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots134 × 0.1+13.4
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1461 × 0.01+14.6
- total94 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24294 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.6/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.4% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.5% (1222 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.1%, worth PD −1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014-15 | Ducks | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:09 | 1 | 0 | 24 | 8.3% | 48.8% |
| 2014-15 | Blue Jackets | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20.0% | 39.4% |
| 2015-16 | Blue Jackets | 81 | 9 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:28 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 8.3% | 45.7% |
| 2016-17 | Blue Jackets | 81 | 6 | 19 | 25 | 10 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:23 | 3 | 0 | 96 | 6.3% | 45.3% |
| 2017-18 | Golden Knights | 82 | 43 | 35 | 78 | 49 | 12 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 18:43 | 6 | 1 | 184 | 23.4% | 48.0% |
| 2018-19 | Golden Knights | 82 | 24 | 32 | 56 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 1 | 18:51 | 5 | 0 | 169 | 14.2% | 47.6% |
| 2019-20 | Golden Knights | 63 | 15 | 31 | 46 | 11 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 18:52 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 10.9% | 51.9% |
| 2020-21 | Golden Knights | 56 | 14 | 25 | 39 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 18:40 | 4 | 1 | 111 | 12.6% | 54.0% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 67 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 18:17 | 0 | 0 | 135 | 8.9% | 51.7% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 82 | 14 | 39 | 53 | 14 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 17:28 | 2 | 0 | 161 | 8.7% | 55.3% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 70 | 30 | 30 | 60 | 15 | 22 | 7 | 15 | 1 | 17:36 | 2 | 0 | 175 | 17.1% | 56.2% |
| 2024-25 | Golden Knights | 53 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 17:01 | 4 | 0 | 119 | 7.6% | 58.1% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15:09 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 13.3% | 57.6% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:24 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 57.7% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 14 | 20 | 34 | — | 17 | — | 2 | — | 16:34 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 33 that is -4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Teddy Blueger (2025-25) · Kirby Dach (2025-25) · Kasperi Kapanen (2025-25) · Alexander Kerfoot (2025-25) · Blake Lizotte (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 10:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Karlsson, Marner) → 5-3 | Karlsson · Marner Theodore · Lauzon | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Peeke · Duda Cossa (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs OTT | |||||
| P3 18:00 | EV | Goal | Karlsson (Connelly, Marner) → 3-1 | Connelly · Karlsson · Marner McNabb · Theodore | Pinto · Stützle · Batherson · Cozens Spence · Kleven |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with William over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner VGK | 127 | 10 | |
| Brett Howden VGK | 83 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 72 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 67 | 10 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon VGK | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats