Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 78?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists71 × 1+71
- PP points47 × 0.5+23.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots205 × 0.1+20.5
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1692 × 0.01+16.9
- total188 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242188 = 78/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 188 points is 78 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for VGK — missed 2 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −6.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 6.8% shooting on 44 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.9% (1459 shots before this season) — that's 3.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (6.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.9%, worth PD −6.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Maple Leafs | 77 | 19 | 42 | 61 | 0 | 38 | 4 | 21 | 0 | 16:49 | 5 | 0 | 176 | 10.8% | 37.8% |
| 2017-18 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 22 | 47 | 69 | -1 | 26 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 16:23 | 2 | 0 | 194 | 11.3% | 52.6% |
| 2018-19 | Maple Leafs | 82 | 26 | 68 | 94 | 22 | 22 | 3 | 21 | 1 | 19:49 | 5 | 0 | 233 | 11.2% | 63.6% |
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 59 | 16 | 51 | 67 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 21:33 | 2 | 1 | 154 | 10.4% | 26.9% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 55 | 20 | 47 | 67 | 21 | 20 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 22:26 | 5 | 0 | 156 | 12.8% | 80.0% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 72 | 35 | 62 | 97 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 25 | 3 | 20:53 | 5 | 1 | 224 | 15.6% | 55.6% |
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 80 | 30 | 69 | 99 | 18 | 28 | 9 | 36 | 4 | 21:17 | 4 | 2 | 196 | 15.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 69 | 26 | 59 | 85 | 21 | 18 | 8 | 27 | 1 | 21:17 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 16.5% | 25.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 81 | 27 | 75 | 102 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 33 | 1 | 21:19 | 7 | 3 | 173 | 15.6% | 29.4% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 81 | 24 | 56 | 80 | 17 | 24 | 5 | 24 | 0 | 19:57 | 2 | 0 | 165 | 14.5% | 40.3% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 18 | 3 | 20 | 23 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | 44 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 17 | 71 | 88 | — | 34 | — | 32 | — | 18:09 | — | — | 178 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jack Eichel (2025-25) · Mikko Rantanen (2025-25) · Mark Stone (2025-25) · Mitch Marner (2025-25) · Nick Suzuki (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 02:15 | PP | Assist | #? (Marner, Stone) → 1-0 | Stone · Hertl · Olofsson · Marner | Trocheck · McBain Peeke · DeSimone Cossa (G) |
| P2 03:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Eichel, Marner) → 2-1 | Stone · Hertl · Eichel · Marner | Trocheck · McBain Weegar · Sergachev Cossa (G) |
| P3 10:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Karlsson, Marner) → 5-3 | Karlsson · Marner Theodore · Lauzon | Lee · Yamamoto · Hayton Peeke · Duda Cossa (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ BUF | |||||
| P2 12:17 | SH | Goal | #? → 1-0 | Karlsson Hanifin · Lauzon | Thompson · Quinn · Ostlund · Benson Dahlin Ellis (G) |
| P3 05:43 | EV | Assist | #? (Marner) → 3-1 | Barbashev · Marner McNabb · Theodore | Zucker · Norris · Kulich Dahlin · Power Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mitch over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson VGK | 127 | 10 | |
| Brett Howden VGK | 84 | 10 | |
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 61 | 10 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon VGK | 61 | 10 | |
| Shea Theodore VGK | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats