Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 28?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals2 × 3+6
- proj assists9 × 1+9
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots101 × 0.1+10.1
- PIM126 × 0.05+6.3
- ice time (min)1459 × 0.01+14.6
- total46 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16646 = 28/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 46 points is 28 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.5 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for VGK.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −1.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.3% (432 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.0 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.0%, worth PD −1.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 16 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:32 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 19 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:25 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 41 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:43 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 53 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -9 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Predators | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:06 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Predators | 67 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0 | 0 | 77 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Predators | 79 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -3 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:37 | 0 | 0 | 103 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Predators | 28 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:58 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Golden Knights | 68 | 1 | 12 | 13 | -3 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:11 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Golden Knights | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Golden Knights | 84 | 2 | 9 | 11 | — | 100 | — | 0 | — | 18:00 | — | — | 101 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Dmitry Kulikov (2025-25) · Robert Bortuzzo (2023-23) · Travis Dermott (2023-23) · Jaycob Megna (2023-23) · Vincent Desharnais (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · @ PIT | |||||
| P3 11:19 | EV | Assist | #? (Lauzon) → 2-2 | Hertl McNabb · Andersson · Lauzon | Chinakhov · Kuzmenko · Kindel Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jeremy over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Andersson VGK | 134 | 10 | |
| Mitch Marner VGK | 61 | 10 | |
| William Karlsson VGK | 56 | 10 | |
| Brett Howden VGK | 50 | 10 | |
| Jack Eichel VGK | 49 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats