Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 72?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points20 × 0.5+10
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots173 × 0.1+17.3
- PIM30 × 0.05+1.5
- ice time (min)1943 × 0.01+19.4
- total119 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166119 = 72/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 119 points is 72 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.8 SOG/game lately vs 2.0 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.6% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.2% (1325 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.7%, worth PD +0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Blues | 75 | 5 | 19 | 24 | 1 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 17:14 | 1 | 1 | 138 | 3.6% | 100.0% |
| 2018-19 | Blues | 78 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 14 | 45 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 17:32 | 4 | 1 | 150 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Blues | 71 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 15 | 27 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 16:16 | 1 | 0 | 138 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blues | 43 | 6 | 14 | 20 | -8 | 18 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:15 | 0 | 0 | 73 | 8.2% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 73 | 7 | 28 | 35 | -21 | 63 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 20:41 | 0 | 0 | 121 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 81 | 14 | 50 | 64 | 28 | 55 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 23:40 | 2 | 1 | 149 | 9.4% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 59 | 11 | 35 | 46 | 8 | 78 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 23:05 | 0 | 0 | 120 | 9.2% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 62 | 11 | 28 | 39 | -3 | 33 | 2 | 12 | 0 | 22:05 | 3 | 1 | 137 | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 81 | 11 | 33 | 44 | -24 | 54 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 21:40 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 6.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -8 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 23:08 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 8.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 12 | 32 | 45 | — | 37 | — | 21 | — | 21:27 | — | — | 142 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Seth Jones (2025-25) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Dougie Hamilton (2025-25) · Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Vince Dunn (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 15:02 | EV | Goal | #? (Catton, Wood) → 3-4 | Kakko · Wood · Catton Larsson | Zibanejad · Lafrenière · Perreault Gavrikov · Fox Korpisalo (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs TOR | |||||
| P2 03:33 | PP | Assist | Stephenson (Dunn, Beniers) → 3-2 | Eberle · Stephenson · Beniers · McMann Dunn | Sissons · Blueger McCabe · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 02:23 | PP | Assist | Montour (Eberle, Dunn) → 3-1 | Eberle · Stephenson · McCann Dunn · Montour | Stenlund Peeke · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 15 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 15:41 | EV | Assist | Beniers (Dunn) → 3-3 | McCann · Beniers · Samoskevich Larsson · Dunn | Kucherov · Cirelli · Hagel Carlson · Moser Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Vince over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larsson SEA | 169 | 10 | |
| Jordan Eberle SEA | 83 | 10 | |
| Bobby McMann SEA | 83 | 10 | |
| Chandler Stephenson SEA | 80 | 10 | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | 77 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats