Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 47?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points10 × 0.5+5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots222 × 0.1+22.2
- PIM10 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1431 × 0.01+14.3
- total114 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242114 = 47/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 114 points is 47 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −6.2
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 6.7% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.2% (488 shots before this season) — that's 2.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.9 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 10.4%, worth PD −6.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:34 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 56 | 15 | 9 | 24 | 13 | 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 11:34 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 12.7% | 60.0% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 74 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 12 | 27 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 14:30 | 5 | 0 | 169 | 11.8% | 19.0% |
| 2025-26 | Maple Leafs | 60 | 19 | 13 | 32 | -3 | 40 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 15:19 | 3 | 0 | 125 | 15.2% | 60.0% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 18 | 10 | 4 | 14 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:58 | 0 | 0 | 58 | 17.2% | 20.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 17:02 | 0 | 0 | 45 | 6.7% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 18 | 18 | 36 | — | 24 | — | 7 | — | 16:16 | — | — | 182 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Alex Chiasson (2021-21) · James Neal (2020-20) · Mathieu Olivier (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 14:35 | EV | Assist | Samoskevich (McMann, Montour) → 4-3 | Stephenson · Samoskevich · McMann Evans · Montour | Schmaltz · Crouse · Cooley Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Bobby over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle SEA | 132 | 10 | |
| Chandler Stephenson SEA | 94 | 10 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 83 | 10 | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | 69 | 10 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 68 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats