Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals19 × 3+57
- proj assists25 × 1+25
- PP points15 × 0.5+7.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots89 × 0.1+8.9
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1503 × 0.01+15
- total117 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242117 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 117 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +1.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.2% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (595 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.7%, worth PD +1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Eberle 13.9%, Dunn 8.6%, Montour 10.3%, McCann 10.7%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 16:56 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 42.4% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 80 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 17:06 | 4 | 1 | 148 | 16.2% | 42.2% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 77 | 15 | 22 | 37 | -11 | 20 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 17:58 | 1 | 0 | 133 | 11.3% | 47.4% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 82 | 20 | 23 | 43 | 0 | 14 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 18:41 | 2 | 1 | 147 | 13.6% | 47.7% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 82 | 20 | 30 | 50 | -8 | 23 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 19:17 | 1 | 0 | 149 | 13.4% | 48.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 17 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22.2% | 48.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 19 | 25 | 44 | — | 19 | — | 13 | — | 16:46 | — | — | 118 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Pius Suter (2025-25) · Matt Coronato (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 06:38 | PP | Assist | #? (Beniers, Stephenson) → 2-4 | Stephenson · McMann · Beniers Dunn | Miller · Kartye Pettersson · Schneider Korpisalo (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs CGY | |||||
| P4 00:55 | EV | Goal | Beniers (Montour) → 2-1 | McMann · Beniers Montour | Coronato · Gridin Nemec Wolf (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs TOR | |||||
| P2 03:33 | PP | Assist | Stephenson (Dunn, Beniers) → 3-2 | Eberle · Stephenson · Beniers · McMann Dunn | Sissons · Blueger McCabe · Stecher Bobrovsky (G) |
| P3 19:27 | EV | Assist | Montour (Eberle, Beniers) → 5-4 | Eberle · Beniers · McMann Dunn · Montour | Sissons · Paul · Roslovic McCabe · Raddysh Bobrovsky (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 18:23 | PP | Goal | Beniers (Kakko, Catton) → 2-1 | Beniers · Samoskevich · Catton · Kakko Montour | Trocheck · Crouse Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matty over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle SEA | 79 | 10 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 77 | 10 | |
| Brandon Montour SEA | 72 | 9 | |
| Jared McCann SEA | 72 | 6 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 71 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats