Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists32 × 1+32
- PP points23 × 0.5+11.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots214 × 0.1+21.4
- PIM15 × 0.05+0.8
- ice time (min)1355 × 0.01+13.6
- total146 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242146 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 146 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 6 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 6 of 12 for SEA — missed 6 games (2026-10-30, 2026-11-04, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-12, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.7% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.8% (1337 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.8%, worth PD −2.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Canucks | 69 | 9 | 9 | 18 | -6 | 32 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12:31 | 1 | 0 | 106 | 8.5% | 34.7% |
| 2016-17 | Panthers | 29 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:38 | 0 | 0 | 44 | 2.3% | 39.1% |
| 2017-18 | Panthers | 68 | 9 | 19 | 28 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:15 | 4 | 1 | 143 | 6.3% | 38.6% |
| 2018-19 | Panthers | 46 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -9 | 18 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 14:04 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 10.3% | 45.6% |
| 2018-19 | Penguins | 32 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:11 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 15.3% | 47.7% |
| 2019-20 | Penguins | 66 | 14 | 21 | 35 | 6 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 15:14 | 4 | 1 | 150 | 9.3% | 46.4% |
| 2020-21 | Penguins | 43 | 14 | 18 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 14:07 | 3 | 0 | 93 | 15.1% | 43.4% |
| 2021-22 | Kraken | 74 | 27 | 23 | 50 | -26 | 33 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 16:08 | 1 | 0 | 199 | 13.6% | 45.5% |
| 2022-23 | Kraken | 79 | 40 | 30 | 70 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 3 | 16:20 | 3 | 0 | 210 | 19.0% | 33.3% |
| 2023-24 | Kraken | 80 | 29 | 33 | 62 | -10 | 31 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 16:46 | 3 | 1 | 216 | 13.4% | 47.9% |
| 2024-25 | Kraken | 82 | 22 | 39 | 61 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 17:13 | 3 | 1 | 202 | 10.9% | 44.7% |
| 2025-26 | Kraken | 52 | 20 | 20 | 40 | -7 | 11 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 16:26 | 2 | 1 | 117 | 17.1% | 52.0% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 11 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 16:08 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 40.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 21 | 32 | 53 | — | 30 | — | 16 | — | 15:38 | — | — | 169 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 4 of 6 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 · @ TBL | |||||
| P3 02:54 | PP | Goal | McCann (Eberle, Stephenson) → 2-2 | Eberle · Stephenson · McCann · McMann Dunn | Cirelli · Hagel McDonagh · Cernak Vasilevskiy (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jared over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers SEA | 118 | 10 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich SEA | 80 | 9 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 73 | 10 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 58 | 10 | |
| Brandon Montour SEA | 54 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats