Mackie Samoskevich
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 57?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals11 × 0.5+5.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots142 × 0.1+14.2
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1300 × 0.01+13
- total139 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242139 = 57/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 139 points is 57 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 5.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 12 of 12 for SEA.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +5.2
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.2% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.5% (301 shots before this season) — that's 3.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.1%, worth PD +5.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Montour 10.3%, Beniers 22.2%, McCann 10.7%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Panthers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:02 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Panthers | 72 | 15 | 16 | 31 | -4 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 13:19 | 5 | 0 | 129 | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Panthers | 77 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -5 | 30 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 14:28 | 1 | 0 | 161 | 7.5% | 41.7% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 16 | 6 | 6 | 12 | -1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:29 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 22.2% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 25 | 28 | 52 | — | 25 | — | 9 | — | 15:21 | — | — | 141 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 23 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Egor Chinakhov (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Jackson Blake (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs CAR | |||||
| P3 13:15 | EV | Assist | #? (Samoskevich) → 1-4 | Stephenson · Samoskevich Larsson · Dunn | Hall · Jankowski · Jarvis Gostisbehere · Valimaki Bussi (G) |
| Nov 4 · vs CGY | |||||
| P2 13:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Samoskevich, Kakko) → 1-1 | Kakko · Samoskevich Mahura · Ottavainen | Frost · Sharangovich · Suniev Kuznetsov · Parekh Wolf (G) |
| Oct 30 · @ CGY | |||||
| P1 11:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Samoskevich, Stephenson) → 1-1 | Stephenson · Samoskevich Montour · Evans | Strome · Pospisil · Gridin Middleton · Whitecloud Wolf (G) |
| P2 18:15 | PP | Goal | #? (Kakko, Catton) → 2-4 | Kakko · Wright · Catton Montour | Backlund · Farabee Middleton · Whitecloud Wolf (G) |
| Oct 28 · vs TOR | |||||
| P1 01:59 | EV | Assist | Catton (Samoskevich) → 1-0 | Samoskevich · Catton · Nyman Evans · Montour | Paul · Cowan · Nylander Mermis · Ekman-Larsson Bobrovsky (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Mackie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour SEA | 67 | 9 | |
| Matty Beniers SEA | 66 | 10 | |
| Ryker Evans SEA | 62 | 10 | |
| Jared McCann SEA | 57 | 6 | |
| Vince Dunn SEA | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats