Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals3 × 3+9
- proj assists30 × 1+30
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots99 × 0.1+9.9
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1529 × 0.01+15.3
- total66 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16666 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 66 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 13 of 15 for TBL — missed 2 games (2026-10-31, 2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 0.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.4% (660 shots before this season) — that's 0.9 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 3.3%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Lightning | 58 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 58 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 19:15 | 1 | 0 | 107 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Lightning | 67 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 11 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:57 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Lightning | 46 | 5 | 13 | 18 | 8 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:47 | 0 | 0 | 85 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Lightning | 55 | 1 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:09 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Lightning | 70 | 2 | 14 | 16 | 8 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19:14 | 0 | 0 | 87 | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Lightning | 69 | 2 | 11 | 13 | 5 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:11 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 3.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Lightning | 76 | 3 | 18 | 21 | 29 | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:16 | 0 | 0 | 64 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 61 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 3 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 1 | 0 | 53 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 17 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:12 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 3 | 30 | 32 | — | 43 | — | 0 | — | 18:34 | — | — | 100 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Olli Maatta (2025-25) · Samuel Girard (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Aaron Ekblad (2025-25) · John Marino (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ WPG | |||||
| P3 14:27 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Mikheyev) → 3-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| P3 14:01 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 2-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Barron · Koepke · Rosén DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 18:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Holmberg) → 2-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
| P3 05:08 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 4-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs DET | |||||
| P1 13:01 | EV | Assist | #? (Kucherov, Cernak) → 2-0 | Kucherov · Guentzel McDonagh · Cernak | Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Finnie Chiarot · Seider Gibson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Erik over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh TBL | 117 | 10 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev TBL | 85 | 10 | |
| Pontus Holmberg TBL | 83 | 10 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons TBL | 80 | 8 | |
| Brandon Hagel TBL | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats