Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots107 × 0.1+10.7
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1239 × 0.01+12.4
- total95 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24295 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 95 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.7
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.4% shooting on 23 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.8% (851 shots before this season) — that's 1.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.4%, worth PD +1.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-20 | Maple Leafs | 39 | 8 | 15 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:35 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 8.2% | 75.0% |
| 2020-21 | Maple Leafs | 54 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:13 | 2 | 0 | 107 | 6.5% | 100.0% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 53 | 21 | 11 | 32 | 16 | 26 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 15:16 | 4 | 0 | 147 | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Canucks | 46 | 13 | 15 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16:55 | 2 | 0 | 91 | 14.3% | 20.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canucks | 78 | 11 | 20 | 31 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 1 | 0 | 147 | 7.5% | 27.6% |
| 2024-25 | Blackhawks | 80 | 20 | 14 | 34 | 4 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 15:41 | 3 | 0 | 138 | 14.5% | 8.3% |
| 2025-26 | Blackhawks | 77 | 18 | 18 | 36 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:26 | 2 | 0 | 123 | 14.6% | 22.2% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:56 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 15.4% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 17 | 17 | 34 | — | 29 | — | 0 | — | 14:55 | — | — | 124 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kailer Yamamoto (2025-25) · Nick Paul (2025-25) · Mark Jankowski (2025-25) · Brett Howden (2025-25) · Cody Glass (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ WPG | |||||
| P3 14:27 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Mikheyev) → 3-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 18:22 | EV | Goal | #? (Cernak, Holmberg) → 2-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
| P3 05:08 | EV | Goal | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 4-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ilya over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zemgus Girgensons TBL | 100 | 7 | |
| Pontus Holmberg TBL | 95 | 10 | |
| Ryan McDonagh TBL | 94 | 10 | |
| Erik Cernak TBL | 68 | 8 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 46 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats