Pontus Holmberg
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 52?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots149 × 0.1+14.9
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)1216 × 0.01+12.2
- total126 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242126 = 52/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 126 points is 52 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for TBL.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +3.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 18.8% shooting on 32 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (293 shots before this season) — that's 1.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +3.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Maple Leafs | 37 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10:25 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 18.5% | 42.5% |
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 54 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:34 | 1 | 0 | 54 | 13.0% | 46.3% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 68 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 4 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 12:40 | 0 | 0 | 68 | 10.3% | 48.8% |
| 2025-26 | Lightning | 70 | 11 | 11 | 22 | 1 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 2 | 0 | 90 | 12.2% | 36.5% |
| 2026-27 | Lightning | 19 | 6 | 7 | 13 | 2 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:39 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 18.8% | 47.6% |
| 84-G proj | Lightning | 84 | 21 | 27 | 48 | — | 66 | — | 2 | — | 14:45 | — | — | 144 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jackson Blake (2025-25) · Logan Stankoven (2025-25) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Andrei Kuzmenko (2025-25) · Jonatan Berggren (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ WPG | |||||
| P3 14:27 | EV | Goal | #? (Cernak, Mikheyev) → 3-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| P3 14:01 | EV | Goal | #? (Cernak, Girgensons) → 2-3 | Girgensons · Mikheyev McDonagh · Cernak | Barron · Koepke · Rosén DeMelo · Ferraro Skinner (G) |
| Nov 5 · vs CHI | |||||
| P1 18:22 | EV | Assist | #? (Cernak, Holmberg) → 2-0 | Girgensons · Holmberg McDonagh · Cernak | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs WPG | |||||
| P2 18:07 | EV | Assist | Carlson (Holmberg, Hagel) → 4-1 | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg Carlson · D'Astous | Connor · Mercer · Björck Samberg · Pionk Skinner (G) |
| P2 19:03 | EV | Assist | Hagel (Cirelli, Holmberg) → 5-1 | Cirelli · Hagel · Holmberg McDonagh · Moser | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Fleury · Salomonsson Skinner (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Pontus over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ilya Mikheyev TBL | 95 | 10 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons TBL | 83 | 7 | |
| Ryan McDonagh TBL | 80 | 10 | |
| Erik Cernak TBL | 65 | 8 | |
| J.J. Moser TBL | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats