Charlie McAvoy
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 68?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists45 × 1+45
- PP points7 × 0.5+3.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots154 × 0.1+15.4
- PIM98 × 0.05+4.9
- ice time (min)2051 × 0.01+20.5
- total113 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166113 = 68/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 113 points is 68 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (12 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.2 SOG/game lately vs 1.3 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for BOS — missed 1 game (2026-10-10).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 7.1% (885 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.4%, worth PD −1.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Bruins | 63 | 7 | 25 | 32 | 20 | 53 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 22:09 | 2 | 1 | 77 | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Bruins | 54 | 7 | 21 | 28 | 14 | 45 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 22:10 | 3 | 1 | 79 | 8.9% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Bruins | 67 | 5 | 27 | 32 | 24 | 41 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 23:10 | 1 | 1 | 101 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Bruins | 51 | 5 | 25 | 30 | 22 | 38 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 24:00 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Bruins | 78 | 10 | 46 | 56 | 31 | 66 | 4 | 21 | 1 | 24:38 | 5 | 1 | 166 | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 67 | 7 | 45 | 52 | 29 | 54 | 2 | 19 | 0 | 22:18 | 2 | 1 | 105 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 74 | 12 | 35 | 47 | 4 | 86 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 24:51 | 3 | 2 | 133 | 9.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 50 | 7 | 16 | 23 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 23:40 | 2 | 0 | 98 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 69 | 11 | 50 | 61 | 13 | 62 | 2 | 23 | 0 | 24:23 | 1 | 1 | 111 | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 13 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 24:16 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 8 | 45 | 52 | — | 75 | — | 19 | — | 21:45 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Charlie McAvoy (2025-25) · Miro Heiskanen (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 04:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Mittelstadt, McAvoy) → 1-0 | Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov McAvoy · Lohrei | Bennett · Tkachuk · Reinhardt Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 19:48 | EV | Assist | #? (McAvoy, Peterka) → 4-4 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka McAvoy | Mangiapane · Smith · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| P4 02:32 | EV | Assist | Lindholm (McAvoy) → 5-4 | Lindholm · Minten McAvoy | Bedard · Moore Kaiser Soderblom (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs NSH | |||||
| P1 03:49 | EV | Assist | Mittelstadt (Pastrnak, McAvoy) → 1-0 | Mittelstadt · Zacha · Pastrnak Borgen · Lindholm · McAvoy · Zadorov | Forsberg · O'Reilly · Stamkos Lyubushkin · Skjei Annunen (G) |
| P1 16:38 | PP | Assist | Lindholm (McAvoy, Zacha) → 2-0 | Zacha · Lindholm · Geekie · Pastrnak McAvoy | Kerfoot · Drury Josi · Skjei Annunen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Charlie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 172 | 10 | |
| David Pastrnak BOS | 122 | 10 | |
| Pavel Zacha BOS | 103 | 9 | |
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 86 | 10 | |
| Elias Lindholm BOS | 84 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats