Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 67?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists39 × 1+39
- PP points35 × 0.5+17.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots138 × 0.1+13.8
- PIM40 × 0.05+2
- ice time (min)1622 × 0.01+16.2
- total163 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242163 = 67/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 163 points is 67 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 13 of 14 for BOS — missed 1 game (2026-10-17).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.9% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.6% (1204 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-16 | Devils | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:51 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2016-17 | Devils | 70 | 8 | 16 | 24 | -17 | 19 | 5 | 13 | 0 | 14:18 | 2 | 0 | 83 | 9.6% | 40.3% |
| 2017-18 | Devils | 69 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -3 | 30 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14:22 | 0 | 0 | 112 | 7.1% | 43.9% |
| 2018-19 | Devils | 61 | 13 | 12 | 25 | -6 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 16:05 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 13.1% | 48.9% |
| 2019-20 | Devils | 65 | 8 | 24 | 32 | -12 | 14 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 16:16 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 8.2% | 43.3% |
| 2020-21 | Devils | 50 | 17 | 18 | 35 | -11 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 17:09 | 4 | 2 | 103 | 16.5% | 51.5% |
| 2021-22 | Devils | 70 | 15 | 21 | 36 | -21 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 16:51 | 1 | 1 | 148 | 10.1% | 50.1% |
| 2022-23 | Bruins | 82 | 21 | 36 | 57 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 16:03 | 3 | 0 | 131 | 16.0% | 45.3% |
| 2023-24 | Bruins | 78 | 21 | 38 | 59 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 18:06 | 6 | 1 | 148 | 14.2% | 54.8% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 82 | 14 | 33 | 47 | -8 | 21 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 19:04 | 5 | 2 | 132 | 10.6% | 53.2% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 78 | 30 | 35 | 65 | 4 | 28 | 11 | 22 | 0 | 16:51 | 4 | 2 | 131 | 22.9% | 53.3% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 18 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19:14 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 16.1% | 53.3% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 24 | 39 | 63 | — | 41 | — | 27 | — | 17:36 | — | — | 143 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jamie Benn (2025-25) · Pavel Zacha (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Nick Schmaltz (2025-25) · Tomas Hertl (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 15:59 | PP | Assist | Geekie (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 3-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Geekie McAvoy | Lundell Jones · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| P3 00:58 | EV | Assist | Peterka (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 4-1 | Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka Borgen · Lohrei | Eller · Reinhart · Lundell Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 12:07 | EV | Goal | #? (Pastrnak, Peterka) → 1-1 | Pastrnak · Peterka Lindholm · McAvoy | Malkin · Chinakhov · Kindel Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| P2 14:24 | EV | Goal | #? (Peterka, Pastrnak) → 4-2 | Pastrnak · Peterka Lindholm · McAvoy | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| Nov 2 · vs VGK | |||||
| P2 03:23 | PP | Assist | #? (Zacha, Pastrnak) → 2-0 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha McAvoy | Karlsson · Marner McNabb · Theodore Hart (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Pavel over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak BOS | 171 | 10 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 103 | 9 | |
| JJ Peterka BOS | 89 | 10 | |
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 82 | 10 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 73 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats