Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals23 × 3+69
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals5 × 0.25+1.3
- shots177 × 0.1+17.7
- PIM19 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1479 × 0.01+14.8
- total146 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242146 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 146 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.9 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.2
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 13.2% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.4% (689 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.3%, worth PD −0.2 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 77 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -15 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 13:39 | 1 | 0 | 125 | 9.6% | 55.6% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 82 | 28 | 22 | 50 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 16:24 | 5 | 0 | 226 | 12.4% | 20.0% |
| 2024-25 | Sabres | 77 | 27 | 41 | 68 | -1 | 34 | 6 | 18 | 0 | 18:11 | 3 | 0 | 173 | 15.6% | 16.7% |
| 2025-26 | Mammoth | 82 | 25 | 22 | 47 | 6 | 28 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15:59 | 4 | 0 | 159 | 15.7% | 33.3% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17:38 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 12.5% | 16.7% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 23 | 37 | 60 | — | 29 | — | 5 | — | 16:38 | — | — | 161 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Mason Marchment (2025-25) · Gabriel Landeskog (2025-25) · Dylan Holloway (2025-25) · Will Smith (2025-25) · Josh Norris (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P3 00:58 | EV | Goal | Peterka (Pastrnak, Zacha) → 4-1 | Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka Borgen · Lohrei | Eller · Reinhart · Lundell Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 12:07 | EV | Assist | #? (Pastrnak, Peterka) → 1-1 | Pastrnak · Peterka Lindholm · McAvoy | Malkin · Chinakhov · Kindel Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| P2 14:24 | EV | Assist | #? (Peterka, Pastrnak) → 4-2 | Pastrnak · Peterka Lindholm · McAvoy | Crosby · Rakell · Novak Karlsson · Girard Silovs (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P3 13:06 | EV | Assist | #? (Peterka, #?) → 3-4 | Kuraly · Kastelic · Peterka Borgen | Greenway · Smith · Greene Mastro · Rinzel Soderblom (G) |
| P3 19:48 | EV | Assist | #? (McAvoy, Peterka) → 4-4 | Lindholm · Pastrnak · Zacha · Peterka McAvoy | Mangiapane · Smith · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with JJ over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak BOS | 108 | 10 | |
| Pavel Zacha BOS | 88 | 9 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 69 | 10 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 69 | 10 | |
| Mason Lohrei BOS | 67 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats