Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 27?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1332 × 0.01+13.3
- total66 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24266 = 27/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 66 points is 27 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 1 game (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for DET — missed 1 game (2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 3.6% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.2% (617 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.8%, worth PD −3.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Red Wings | 62 | 8 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12:05 | 0 | 0 | 74 | 10.8% | 35.9% |
| 2020-21 | Red Wings | 40 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:48 | 1 | 0 | 62 | 4.8% | 44.4% |
| 2021-22 | Red Wings | 80 | 15 | 12 | 27 | -25 | 66 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 14:31 | 2 | 0 | 128 | 11.7% | 50.1% |
| 2022-23 | Red Wings | 56 | 10 | 19 | 29 | 2 | 43 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:06 | 0 | 0 | 88 | 11.4% | 51.0% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 75 | 13 | 20 | 33 | 8 | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 15:11 | 3 | 0 | 101 | 12.9% | 48.3% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 77 | 11 | 10 | 21 | -12 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 13:25 | 1 | 0 | 99 | 11.1% | 46.4% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 64 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12:39 | 0 | 0 | 65 | 9.2% | 46.2% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 19 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15:51 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 3.6% | 55.6% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 8 | 14 | 22 | — | 23 | — | 2 | — | 15:36 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jordan Greenway (2025-25) · Tyler Pitlick (2023-23) · Ty Dellandrea (2025-25) · Colton Sissons (2025-25) · Ryan Lomberg (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 · vs STL | |||||
| P1 08:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Rasmussen) → 1-1 | Rasmussen · Danielson Englund · Seider | McMichael · Holloway · Dvorsky Barron · Lindstein Hofer (G) |
| Oct 22 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 14:58 | EV | Goal | Rasmussen (Johansson, Compher) → 4-1 | Copp · Rasmussen · Compher Chiarot · Johansson | Boeser · Rossi · Cotter Oleksiak · Mancini Lankinen (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Michael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Compher DET | 72 | 6 | |
| Andrew Copp DET | 69 | 10 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 64 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 48 | 10 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 44 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats