Casey Mittelstadt
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 46?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals20 × 3+60
- proj assists23 × 1+23
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots117 × 0.1+11.7
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1207 × 0.01+12.1
- total112 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242112 = 46/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 112 points is 46 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +2.4
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 20.0% shooting on 25 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (757 shots before this season) — that's 1.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.2 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +2.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Lindholm 21.2%, Hagens 17.6%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Sabres | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:01 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11.1% | 47.2% |
| 2018-19 | Sabres | 77 | 12 | 13 | 25 | -19 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 13:27 | 1 | 0 | 118 | 10.2% | 39.7% |
| 2019-20 | Sabres | 31 | 4 | 5 | 9 | -5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:46 | 1 | 0 | 34 | 11.8% | 46.5% |
| 2020-21 | Sabres | 41 | 10 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 15:53 | 2 | 0 | 61 | 16.4% | 49.0% |
| 2021-22 | Sabres | 40 | 6 | 13 | 19 | -14 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 16:07 | 1 | 1 | 79 | 7.6% | 44.7% |
| 2022-23 | Sabres | 82 | 15 | 44 | 59 | -8 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 1 | 15:44 | 2 | 1 | 135 | 11.1% | 45.9% |
| 2023-24 | Sabres | 62 | 14 | 33 | 47 | 12 | 28 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 18:16 | 1 | 0 | 102 | 13.7% | 47.1% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 18 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 16.0% | 46.8% |
| 2024-25 | Avalanche | 63 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -12 | 20 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 17:00 | 3 | 0 | 82 | 13.4% | 42.4% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 18 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:17 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 17.4% | 51.9% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 71 | 15 | 27 | 42 | 12 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 15:10 | 2 | 0 | 80 | 18.8% | 48.9% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:22 | 1 | 0 | 28 | 25.0% | 42.9% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 20 | 23 | 43 | — | 23 | — | 6 | — | 14:41 | — | — | 128 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kyle Palmieri (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Taylor Hall (2025-25) · Jordan Eberle (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs MTL | |||||
| P2 14:53 | EV | Goal | #? (Lindholm, Zadorov) → 1-5 | Lindholm · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen | Anderson · Evans · Newhook Carrier · Xhekaj Fowler (G) |
| P3 00:53 | EV | Goal | Mittelstadt (Lindholm, Borgen) → 2-5 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov Zadorov · Borgen | Suzuki · Caufield · Slafkovský Dobson · Hutson Fowler (G) |
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 04:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Mittelstadt, McAvoy) → 1-0 | Mittelstadt · Khusnutdinov McAvoy · Lohrei | Bennett · Tkachuk · Reinhardt Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 12:34 | EV | Goal | #? (Hagens) → 2-2 | Lindholm · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Donato · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ STL | |||||
| P1 05:28 | EV | Assist | Hagens (Mittelstadt) → 1-0 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Buchnevich · Berggren · McTavish Carlo · Broberg Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Casey over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm BOS | 106 | 10 | |
| James Hagens BOS | 92 | 8 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 59 | 10 | |
| Nikita Zadorov BOS | 56 | 9 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats