Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 61?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals28 × 3+84
- proj assists31 × 1+31
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots168 × 0.1+16.8
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1121 × 0.01+11.2
- total147 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242147 = 61/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 147 points is 61 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 2 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 12 of 14 for BOS — missed 2 games (2026-11-08, 2026-11-12).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.6% shooting on 34 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (2 shots before this season) — that's 1.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 14.9%, worth PD +2.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:33 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 17 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 13:20 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 17.6% | 50.0% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 28 | 31 | 59 | — | 30 | — | 2 | — | 14:06 | — | — | 152 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 20 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · vs VGK | |||||
| P1 07:23 | EV | Goal | #? (Lindholm, Zadorov) → 1-0 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt Zadorov · Borgen | Stone · Barbashev · Eichel Hanifin · Coghlan Hart (G) |
| Oct 31 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 12:34 | EV | Assist | #? (Hagens) → 2-2 | Lindholm · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Donato · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Soderblom (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ STL | |||||
| P1 05:28 | EV | Goal | Hagens (Mittelstadt) → 1-0 | Lindholm · Mittelstadt · Hagens Lindholm · McAvoy | Buchnevich · Berggren · McTavish Carlo · Broberg Hofer (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs SJS | |||||
| P1 03:08 | EV | Assist | Mittelstadt (Lindholm, Hagens) → 1-0 | Mittelstadt · Lindholm · Hagens Borgen · Zadorov | Smith · Graf · Celebrini Kesselring · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P3 09:07 | EV | Goal | Hagens (Lindholm) → 4-3 | Mittelstadt · Lindholm · Hagens Borgen · Zadorov | Smith · Graf · Celebrini Allan · Orlov Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with James over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Mittelstadt BOS | 115 | 10 | |
| Elias Lindholm BOS | 99 | 10 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 48 | 10 | |
| Nikita Zadorov BOS | 45 | 9 | |
| Hampus Lindholm BOS | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats