Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 39?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals12 × 3+36
- proj assists24 × 1+24
- PP points9 × 0.5+4.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots172 × 0.1+17.2
- PIM18 × 0.05+0.9
- ice time (min)1178 × 0.01+11.8
- total94 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24294 = 39/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 94 points is 39 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −3.9
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 5.1% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 10.9% (671 shots before this season) — that's 2.2 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.2 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 8.6%, worth PD −3.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Devils | 14 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0 | 0 | 36 | 8.3% | 66.7% |
| 2022-23 | Devils | 45 | 6 | 14 | 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 12:57 | 1 | 1 | 81 | 7.4% | 40.0% |
| 2022-23 | Sharks | 22 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -10 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:53 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| 2023-24 | Sharks | 82 | 24 | 20 | 44 | -34 | 33 | 6 | 16 | 1 | 18:51 | 0 | 0 | 204 | 11.8% | 32.9% |
| 2024-25 | Sharks | 64 | 17 | 19 | 36 | 8 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 16:59 | 0 | 0 | 141 | 12.1% | 60.0% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 20 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:18 | 0 | 0 | 40 | 5.0% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 82 | 17 | 16 | 33 | -1 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 12:55 | 3 | 0 | 132 | 12.9% | 37.5% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 14:00 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 4.9% | 100.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 12 | 24 | 36 | — | 28 | — | 8 | — | 14:28 | — | — | 155 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 27 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kent Johnson (2025-25) · Alexandre Texier (2025-25) · Noah Cates (2025-25) · Bobby Brink (2025-25) · Andreas Johnsson (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 13:13 | EV | Assist | #? (Zetterlund, Cozens) → 2-0 | Zetterlund · Cozens Chabot · Spence | Lehkonen · MacKinnon · Necas Toews · Makar Wedgewood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P1 05:27 | PP | Goal | #? (Halliday, Tomasino) → 1-0 | Tomasino · Pinto · Halliday Chabot | Trocheck · McBain Sergachev · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 16:51 | EV | Assist | #? (Stützle, Zetterlund) → 2-1 | Zetterlund · Stützle Chabot · Spence | Quinn · Doan · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin Ellis (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 11:24 | EV | Assist | Kleven (Zetterlund, Stützle) → 1-0 | Giroux · Zetterlund · Stützle Kleven · Matinpalo | Perry · Moore · Byfield Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs NYR | |||||
| P1 06:40 | EV | Assist | #? (Zetterlund, Giroux) → 2-0 | Zetterlund · Giroux Yakemchuk · Matinpalo | Miller · Dorofeyev · Kartye Schneider · Smits Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Fabian over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle OTT | 85 | 10 | |
| Thomas Chabot OTT | 54 | 9 | |
| Jordan Spence OTT | 52 | 10 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 51 | 10 | |
| Artem Zub OTT | 42 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats