Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists40 × 1+40
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots147 × 0.1+14.7
- PIM74 × 0.05+3.7
- ice time (min)2006 × 0.01+20.1
- total99 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16699 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 99 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.3/10 season baseline.
- Availability: played 12 of 16 for OTT — missed 4 games (2026-10-21, 2026-10-22, 2026-10-24, 2026-10-27).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 3.6% shooting on 28 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.7% (1225 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.0%, worth PD −1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line is our public model’s season-length forecast — frozen 2026-11-13, the day this projection was first published — it does not slide with later results; methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Senators | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:09 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Senators | 63 | 9 | 16 | 25 | -12 | 14 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 17:31 | 0 | 0 | 94 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Senators | 70 | 14 | 41 | 55 | -12 | 32 | 1 | 16 | 1 | 24:17 | 2 | 1 | 185 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 71 | 6 | 33 | 39 | -18 | 42 | 0 | 11 | 0 | 26:00 | 0 | 0 | 186 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 49 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -15 | 36 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 26:17 | 1 | 0 | 120 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 59 | 7 | 31 | 38 | -3 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 0 | 26:12 | 1 | 0 | 173 | 4.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 68 | 11 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 52 | 5 | 20 | 0 | 24:58 | 0 | 0 | 165 | 6.7% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 51 | 9 | 21 | 30 | -3 | 22 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 23:03 | 0 | 0 | 118 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 80 | 9 | 36 | 45 | 17 | 24 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 57 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 22:35 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 7.1% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 16 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:53 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 3.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 6 | 40 | 46 | — | 63 | — | 6 | — | 21:49 | — | — | 127 | — | — |
84-G proj — pace at first publication blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project. Skater model pace-2026.11.13 — last model update Nov 13, 2026.
Comparable player-seasons: Tony DeAngelo (2025-25) · Tyson Barrie (2023-23) · Thomas Chabot (2025-25) · Seth Jones (2025-25) · Filip Hronek (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 9 of 12 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov 10 · vs WSHL 2-30 G2 A2 PTS1 SOG+2 ±21:03 TOI | |||||
| P2 11:05 | EV | Assist | Greig (Chabot, Amadio) → 1-1 | Giroux · Amadio · Greig Chabot · Spence | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Liljegren Thompson (G) |
| P2 16:04 | EV | Assist | Hodgson (Chabot, Halliday) → 2-1 | Hodgson · Tomasino · Halliday Chabot · Spence | Jenner · Leonard · Protas Roy · Chychrun Thompson (G) |
Nov 7 · vs UTAW 4-20 G1 A1 PTS2 SOG+1 ±22:30 TOI | |||||
| P3 17:42 | EV | Assist | Cousins (Chabot, Pinto) → 3-2 | Cousins · Zetterlund · Pinto Chabot · Spence | Lee · Stenlund · Hayton Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Nov 4 · @ BUFW 2-10 G1 A1 PTS1 SOG+1 ±24:18 TOI | |||||
| P3 11:33 | EV | Assist | Pinto (Tomasino, Chabot) → 1-1 | Batherson · Tomasino · Pinto Chabot · Spence | Zucker · McLeod · Doan Power · Zellweger Ellis (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Thomas over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Spence OTT | 138 | 10 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 90 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 70 | 10 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 70 | 10 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund OTT | 59 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats