Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists17 × 1+17
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots80 × 0.1+8
- PIM27 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1744 × 0.01+17.4
- total62 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16662 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 62 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 5.6% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.3% (321 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (0.9 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.3%, worth PD +0.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Kings | 24 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 19:45 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Kings | 71 | 2 | 22 | 24 | 5 | 12 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 14:26 | 0 | 0 | 80 | 2.5% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Kings | 79 | 4 | 24 | 28 | 23 | 16 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 16:47 | 0 | 0 | 86 | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 73 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 15 | 22 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 18:44 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 6.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 6 | 17 | 23 | — | 35 | — | 2 | — | 20:07 | — | — | 90 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Kaiden Guhle (2025-25) · Timothy Liljegren (2025-25) · Mattias Samuelsson (2025-25) · Ryker Evans (2025-25) · Oliver Kylington (2023-23).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P3 16:04 | EV | Assist | #? (Spence, Pinto) → 3-3 | Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence | Roy · Kelly · O'Connor Toews · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 01:47 | EV | Assist | Batherson (Cozens, Spence) → 3-0 | Batherson · Cozens · Foegele Spence · Kleven | Dorofeyev · Laba · Cuylle Fox · Gavrikov Garand (G) |
| Oct 22 · vs SJS | |||||
| P3 06:24 | EV | Goal | Spence (Zetterlund, #?) → 2-4 | Zetterlund · Cousins · Greig Spence · Kleven | Marchment · Celebrini · Toffoli Kesselring · Nurse Askarov (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jordan over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot OTT | 128 | 9 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 65 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 63 | 10 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 58 | 10 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 54 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats