Drake Batherson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 76?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals34 × 3+102
- proj assists37 × 1+37
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots181 × 0.1+18.1
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1478 × 0.01+14.8
- total183 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242183 = 76/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 183 points is 76 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +6.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 22.0% shooting on 41 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (908 shots before this season) — that's 3.7 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.3 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.6%, worth PD +6.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His regular linemates run hot too (Stützle 20.9%, Pinto 19.4%, Cozens 10.0%, Spence 5.6%) — this reads as a line effect, not a finishing skill spike. When the line cools, his assists cool with it.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Senators | 20 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 13:25 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 75.0% |
| 2019-20 | Senators | 23 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -12 | 13 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 15:34 | 0 | 0 | 32 | 9.4% | 57.1% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 56 | 17 | 17 | 34 | -17 | 8 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 16:28 | 3 | 0 | 111 | 15.3% | 38.5% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 46 | 17 | 27 | 44 | 4 | 32 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 18:56 | 3 | 1 | 110 | 15.5% | 41.9% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 82 | 22 | 40 | 62 | -35 | 33 | 14 | 29 | 0 | 18:36 | 2 | 0 | 249 | 8.8% | 34.2% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 82 | 28 | 38 | 66 | -9 | 42 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 18:10 | 4 | 1 | 196 | 14.3% | 40.9% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 82 | 26 | 42 | 68 | -9 | 30 | 13 | 31 | 0 | 18:09 | 3 | 0 | 192 | 13.5% | 50.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 79 | 33 | 38 | 71 | -7 | 33 | 13 | 30 | 0 | 17:21 | 5 | 0 | 167 | 19.8% | 58.3% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 17:42 | 1 | 0 | 47 | 21.3% | 12.5% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 34 | 37 | 70 | — | 44 | — | 24 | — | 16:40 | — | — | 164 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Brady Tkachuk (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25) · Brandon Hagel (2025-25) · Jake Guentzel (2025-25) · Dylan Guenther (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P3 16:04 | EV | Goal | #? (Spence, Pinto) → 3-3 | Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence | Roy · Kelly · O'Connor Toews · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 06:00 | EV | Assist | #? (Chabot, Batherson) → 1-0 | Batherson · Pinto Chabot · Spence | Greer · Colangelo · Washe Mintyukov · Warren Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 05:04 | EV | Goal | Batherson (Tomasino, Chabot) → 2-1 | Batherson · Tomasino · Pinto Chabot · Spence | Toffoli · Bystedt · Stenberg Orlov · Allan Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ LAK | |||||
| P3 12:34 | PP | Assist | Cozens (Stützle, Batherson) → 4-5 | Batherson · Cozens · Stützle · Halliday Sanderson | Laughton · Moore Doughty · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
| P3 07:51 | EV | Goal | Batherson (Sanderson) → 3-5 | Batherson · Pinto · Halliday Sanderson · Zub | Armia · Laughton · Lee Dumoulin · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Drake over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Stützle OTT | 78 | 10 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 72 | 10 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 66 | 10 | |
| Jordan Spence OTT | 63 | 10 | |
| Thomas Chabot OTT | 63 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats