Shane Pinto
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 58?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals24 × 3+72
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points13 × 0.5+6.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots159 × 0.1+15.9
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1679 × 0.01+16.8
- total140 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242140 = 58/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 140 points is 58 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 13.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.8
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 19.4% shooting on 36 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (568 shots before this season) — that's 2.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.7 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.5%, worth PD +3.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Chabot 3.7%, Batherson 22.0%, Sanderson 4.8%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Senators | 12 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:31 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 9.1% | 40.9% |
| 2021-22 | Senators | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:57 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 32.7% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 82 | 20 | 15 | 35 | -21 | 18 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 15:59 | 2 | 0 | 158 | 12.7% | 52.1% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 41 | 9 | 18 | 27 | 9 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 18:07 | 1 | 1 | 110 | 8.2% | 50.6% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 70 | 21 | 16 | 37 | 10 | 26 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17:33 | 5 | 0 | 127 | 16.5% | 50.1% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 72 | 23 | 23 | 46 | 6 | 42 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 18:43 | 2 | 0 | 157 | 14.6% | 51.8% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 20:07 | 1 | 1 | 38 | 23.7% | 53.9% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 24 | 27 | 51 | — | 39 | — | 8 | — | 18:07 | — | — | 154 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 26 that is 0%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Shane Pinto (2025-25) · Shane Wright (2025-25) · Jake Neighbours (2025-25) · Jaden Schwartz (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 · vs COL | |||||
| P1 07:11 | EV | Goal | #? → 1-0 | Batherson · Tomasino Kleven · Matinpalo | Kadri · Landeskog · Roy Burns · Juulsen Wedgewood (G) |
| P3 16:04 | EV | Assist | #? (Spence, Pinto) → 3-3 | Pinto · Stützle Chabot · Spence | Roy · Kelly · O'Connor Toews · Malinski Wedgewood (G) |
| P4 02:08 | EV | Goal | Pinto → 4-3 | Giroux · Pinto Chabot | Kelly · O'Connor Kulak Wedgewood (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 17:42 | EV | Assist | #? (Chabot, Pinto) → 3-2 | Zetterlund · Pinto Chabot · Spence | Lee · Stenlund · Hayton Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| P3 19:44 | EV | Goal | #? (Stützle, Amadio) → 4-2 | Amadio · Stützle Sanderson · Zub | Trocheck · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Shane over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot OTT | 77 | 9 | |
| Artem Zub OTT | 73 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 72 | 10 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 67 | 8 | |
| Jordan Spence OTT | 65 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats