Jake Sanderson
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 74?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists53 × 1+53
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots160 × 0.1+16
- PIM46 × 0.05+2.3
- ice time (min)1917 × 0.01+19.2
- total123 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166123 = 74/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 123 points is 74 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.6 before — chances have dried up.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: played 11 of 16 for OTT — missed 5 games (2026-10-12, 2026-10-13, 2026-10-15, 2026-10-17, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.6
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.8% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.2% (632 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.3 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.9%, worth PD −0.6 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Senators | 77 | 4 | 28 | 32 | -6 | 12 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 21:55 | 0 | 0 | 132 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 79 | 10 | 28 | 38 | 8 | 23 | 3 | 14 | 0 | 23:13 | 3 | 1 | 158 | 6.3% | 100.0% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 80 | 11 | 46 | 57 | -14 | 12 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 24:27 | 4 | 1 | 195 | 5.6% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 67 | 14 | 40 | 54 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 0 | 24:50 | 3 | 0 | 147 | 9.5% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 12 | 1 | 9 | 10 | -3 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 23:05 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 4.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 8 | 53 | 61 | — | 47 | — | 19 | — | 20:52 | — | — | 129 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Victor Hedman (2025-25) · Roman Josi (2025-25) · Shea Theodore (2025-25) · Lane Hutson (2025-25) · Darren Raddysh (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 07:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Sanderson, Zub) → 2-0 | Amadio · Greig Sanderson · Zub | Granlund · Gauthier · Sennecke Luneau · Mitchell Brossoit (G) |
| P1 17:37 | EV | Assist | #? (Giroux, Sanderson) → 3-0 | Giroux · Greig Sanderson · Zub | Killorn · Caulfield · Carlsson Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 10:54 | EV | Assist | #? (Sanderson, Cozens) → 3-1 | Cozens Kleven · Sanderson | Graf · Misa Nurse · Dickinson Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P3 17:30 | EV | Assist | #? (Sanderson) → 5-1 | Giroux · Amadio Sanderson · Zub | Marchment · Sherwood · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ LAK | |||||
| P3 07:51 | EV | Assist | Batherson (Sanderson) → 3-5 | Batherson · Pinto · Halliday Sanderson · Zub | Armia · Laughton · Lee Dumoulin · Edmundson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jake over the last 9 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Artem Zub OTT | 141 | 8 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 89 | 9 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 69 | 9 | |
| Michael Amadio OTT | 66 | 9 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 61 | 9 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats