Michael Amadio
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 46?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals21 × 3+63
- proj assists21 × 1+21
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots106 × 0.1+10.6
- PIM35 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1349 × 0.01+13.5
- total112 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242112 = 46/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 112 points is 46 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Trust is growing: 17:26/game over the last 6, up 15% from 15:10 earlier in the season.
- Hot window: 8.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for OTT.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check overperforming O/U ▲ +3.7
- TRADE VALUE: ABOVE PACE — mildly. A good offer now prices in shooting luck most leagues won't keep paying for.
- 25.0% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (621 shots before this season) — that's 2.9 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). over pace. His shrunk talent rate is 16.3%, worth PD +3.7 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His linemates (Giroux 10.7%, Greig 14.3%, Sanderson 4.8%) aren't running hot alongside him — the goal surge looks individual, so the assist regression risk is smaller than the goal risk.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Kings | 37 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -2 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 9:19 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 14.3% | 43.5% |
| 2018-19 | Kings | 43 | 6 | 7 | 13 | -1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:12 | 0 | 0 | 37 | 16.2% | 43.0% |
| 2019-20 | Kings | 68 | 6 | 10 | 16 | -11 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 13:01 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 6.1% | 48.3% |
| 2020-21 | Kings | 20 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:26 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 51.0% |
| 2020-21 | Senators | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:59 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 46.3% |
| 2021-22 | Maple Leafs | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Golden Knights | 53 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:20 | 2 | 0 | 62 | 17.7% | 42.9% |
| 2022-23 | Golden Knights | 67 | 16 | 11 | 27 | 2 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 12:13 | 2 | 0 | 99 | 16.2% | 49.2% |
| 2023-24 | Golden Knights | 73 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 4 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 13:24 | 2 | 0 | 117 | 12.0% | 51.5% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 72 | 11 | 16 | 27 | 12 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:06 | 2 | 0 | 85 | 12.9% | 51.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 81 | 15 | 20 | 35 | 13 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:07 | 2 | 0 | 96 | 15.6% | 36.8% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 20 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 24.0% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 21 | 21 | 42 | — | 38 | — | 0 | — | 15:43 | — | — | 124 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jaden Schwartz (2025-25) · Robby Fabbri (2024-24) · Alex Newhook (2025-25) · Ryan Hartman (2025-25) · Trevor Moore (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs WSH | |||||
| P2 11:05 | EV | Assist | #? (Chabot, Amadio) → 1-1 | Giroux · Amadio Chabot · Spence | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Liljegren Thompson (G) |
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 06:29 | EV | Goal | #? (Giroux, Kleven) → 2-1 | Giroux · Stützle Spence · Kleven | Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| P3 19:44 | EV | Assist | #? (Stützle, Amadio) → 4-2 | Amadio · Stützle Sanderson · Zub | Trocheck · Keller · Guenther · Cooley Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| Nov 4 · @ BUF | |||||
| P3 16:51 | EV | Goal | #? (Stützle, Zetterlund) → 2-1 | Zetterlund · Stützle Chabot · Spence | Quinn · Doan · Ostlund Samuelsson · Dahlin Ellis (G) |
| Nov 1 · @ ANA | |||||
| P1 17:37 | EV | Goal | #? (Giroux, Sanderson) → 3-0 | Giroux · Greig Sanderson · Zub | Killorn · Caulfield · Carlsson Helleson · LaCombe Brossoit (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Michael over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Giroux OTT | 74 | 10 | |
| Artem Zub OTT | 73 | 10 | |
| Ridly Greig OTT | 69 | 8 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 65 | 8 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 52 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats