Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 43?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots118 × 0.1+11.8
- PIM84 × 0.05+4.2
- ice time (min)1455 × 0.01+14.6
- total104 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242104 = 43/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 104 points is 43 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (15 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 14 of 16 for OTT — missed 2 games (2026-11-04, 2026-11-07).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 14.3% shooting on 21 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 11.7% (375 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.3%, worth PD +0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Senators | 20 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12:54 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 39.4% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 72 | 13 | 13 | 26 | 10 | 66 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14:45 | 1 | 0 | 97 | 13.4% | 43.9% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 78 | 13 | 21 | 34 | -11 | 60 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 17:05 | 2 | 0 | 119 | 10.9% | 54.7% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 77 | 13 | 22 | 35 | 12 | 83 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16:42 | 2 | 0 | 129 | 10.1% | 51.2% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 16 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17:20 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 13.6% | 47.5% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 18 | 19 | 37 | — | 65 | — | 2 | — | 16:22 | — | — | 132 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Rudolfs Balcers (2021-21) · Mackie Samoskevich (2025-25) · Nils Hoglander (2025-25) · Marat Khusnutdinov (2025-25) · Wayne Simmonds (2021-21).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 · vs WSH | |||||
| P2 11:05 | EV | Goal | #? (Chabot, Amadio) → 1-1 | Giroux · Amadio Chabot · Spence | Tuch · Strome · Kyrou Chychrun · Liljegren Thompson (G) |
| Oct 31 · @ SJS | |||||
| P2 12:17 | SH | Goal | #? (Pinto) → 4-1 | Pinto Sanderson · Zub | Marchment · Smith · Celebrini · Stenberg Orlov Nedeljkovic (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 13:38 | EV | Assist | Sanderson (Greig, Amadio) → 5-3 | Pinto · Amadio · Greig Zub · Sanderson | Tolvanen · Bjorkstrand · Glendening Schneider · Gavrikov Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Ridly over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Amadio OTT | 72 | 10 | |
| Artem Zub OTT | 68 | 8 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 60 | 10 | |
| Jake Sanderson OTT | 58 | 6 | |
| Claude Giroux OTT | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats