Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists26 × 1+26
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots164 × 0.1+16.4
- PIM76 × 0.05+3.8
- ice time (min)1767 × 0.01+17.7
- total100 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 166100 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 100 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (20 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 15 of 15 for CAR.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.7% shooting on 39 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 4.7% (861 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.9%, worth PD +1.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Kings | 39 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -8 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:26 | 0 | 0 | 55 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Kings | 70 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -12 | 26 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 18:50 | 0 | 0 | 127 | 3.9% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Kings | 47 | 5 | 13 | 18 | -13 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:10 | 0 | 0 | 92 | 5.4% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Kings | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 18:22 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Kings | 70 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 36 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:50 | 1 | 0 | 94 | 3.2% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 63 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 19:36 | 1 | 0 | 109 | 5.5% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Avalanche | 18 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:57 | 0 | 0 | 41 | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Hurricanes | 82 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -7 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:50 | 0 | 0 | 144 | 3.5% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Hurricanes | 81 | 9 | 22 | 31 | 6 | 59 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21:49 | 1 | 1 | 179 | 5.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Hurricanes | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21:02 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Hurricanes | 84 | 10 | 26 | 36 | — | 66 | — | 2 | — | 20:18 | — | — | 139 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 32 that is -3%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Ryan McDonagh (2025-25) · Jake Walman (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · Damon Severson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 10:36 | EV | Assist | #? (Walker, Carrier) → 6-0 | Carrier · Svechnikov Walker · Miller | Bertuzzi · Bedard · Kantserov Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) · Soderblom (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs WPG | |||||
| P1 05:16 | SH | Goal | #? (Jarvis, Aho) → 1-0 | Aho · Jarvis Miller | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi · Perfetti Pionk Skinner (G) |
| P2 07:41 | EV | Goal | #? (Jarvis) → 4-0 | Martinook · Kotkaniemi · Jarvis Miller | Scheifele · Connor · Vilardi Fleury · Samberg Skinner (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ STL | |||||
| P2 04:45 | EV | Goal | Walker (Blake, Aho) → 1-0 | Aho · Stankoven · Ehlers · Blake Miller · Walker | Berggren · McMichael · McTavish Fowler · Carlo Hofer (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Sean over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| K'Andre Miller CAR | 188 | 10 | |
| Sebastian Aho CAR | 64 | 10 | |
| Logan Stankoven CAR | 60 | 10 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov CAR | 57 | 10 | |
| Jackson Blake CAR | 56 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats