Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 41?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals8 × 3+24
- proj assists14 × 1+14
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots112 × 0.1+11.2
- PIM37 × 0.05+1.9
- ice time (min)1664 × 0.01+16.6
- total68 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16668 = 41/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 68 points is 41 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 16:07/game over the last 6, down 23% from 20:59 earlier in the season.
- Availability: played 15 of 16 for OTT — missed 1 game (2026-11-04).
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +1.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.3% shooting on 24 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 5.2% (175 shots before this season) — that's 0.8 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.2 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.1%, worth PD +1.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Senators | 8 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:41 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Senators | 9 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Senators | 79 | 4 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:28 | 1 | 0 | 78 | 5.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Senators | 70 | 3 | 15 | 18 | 2 | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:21 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 3.3% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 19 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:22 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 8 | 14 | 23 | — | 42 | — | 0 | — | 19:31 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Louis Crevier (2025-25) · Justin Barron (2025-25) · Wyatt Kaiser (2025-25) · Tyler Kleven (2025-25) · Spencer Stastney (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs UTA | |||||
| P3 06:29 | EV | Assist | #? (Giroux, Kleven) → 2-1 | Giroux · Stützle Spence · Kleven | Schmaltz · McBain · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 29 · @ LAK | |||||
| P1 11:24 | EV | Goal | Kleven (Zetterlund, Stützle) → 1-0 | Giroux · Zetterlund · Stützle Kleven · Matinpalo | Perry · Moore · Byfield Dumoulin · Anderson Kuemper (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Tyler over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolas Matinpalo OTT | 88 | 8 | |
| Michael Amadio OTT | 55 | 10 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 55 | 10 | |
| Shane Pinto OTT | 54 | 10 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 45 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats