Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 37?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals16 × 3+48
- proj assists19 × 1+19
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots84 × 0.1+8.4
- PIM9 × 0.05+0.5
- ice time (min)1163 × 0.01+11.6
- total90 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24290 = 37/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 90 points is 37 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 0.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 6.3/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 16.7% shooting on 18 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 15.0% (125 shots before this season) — that's 0.3 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.4%, worth PD +0.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Wild | 16 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13:07 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16.7% | 47.6% |
| 2024-25 | Wild | 57 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:14 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 6.7% | 43.4% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 18 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:47 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 27.3% | 55.6% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 77 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 12 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:30 | 1 | 1 | 78 | 19.2% | 46.7% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:00 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 16.7% | 47.1% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 16 | 19 | 34 | — | 23 | — | 1 | — | 14:23 | — | — | 112 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Rudolfs Balcers (2021-21) · Mackie Samoskevich (2025-25) · Wayne Simmonds (2021-21) · Marat Khusnutdinov (2025-25) · Nils Hoglander (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 08:20 | EV | Goal | Khusnutdinov (Geekie, Minten) → 2-1 | Geekie · Khusnutdinov · Minten Lohrei · Brunet | Smith · Dellandrea · Marchment · Toffoli Kesselring · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Marat over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fraser Minten BOS | 71 | 10 | |
| William Borgen BOS | 55 | 10 | |
| Nikita Zadorov BOS | 53 | 9 | |
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 46 | 9 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 43 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats