Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals25 × 3+75
- proj assists28 × 1+28
- PP points5 × 0.5+2.5
- game-winning goals9 × 0.5+4.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots163 × 0.1+16.3
- PIM112 × 0.05+5.6
- ice time (min)1387 × 0.01+13.9
- total146 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242146 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 146 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.7 SOG/game lately vs 2.5 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 3.3 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 10.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 14 of 14 for BOS.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▲ +2.0
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 17.1% shooting on 35 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.7% (143 shots before this season) — that's 1.2 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.8 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 15.0%, worth PD +2.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-24 | Maple Leafs | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:26 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 48.6% |
| 2024-25 | Maple Leafs | 15 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12:14 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 47.7% |
| 2024-25 | Bruins | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:01 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12.5% | 42.1% |
| 2025-26 | Bruins | 82 | 17 | 18 | 35 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 15:33 | 2 | 2 | 116 | 14.7% | 49.3% |
| 2026-27 | Bruins | 19 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 16:29 | 2 | 0 | 36 | 16.7% | 48.5% |
| 84-G proj | Bruins | 84 | 25 | 28 | 54 | — | 83 | — | 4 | — | 15:59 | — | — | 153 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · vs FLA | |||||
| P1 06:11 | EV | Assist | #? (Minten) → 2-0 | Geekie · Minten Lindholm · Borgen | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Reinhardt Jones · Mikkola Markstrom (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ PIT | |||||
| P3 08:39 | EV | Goal | #? (Geekie) → 6-2 | Geekie · Peterka Lindholm · Brunet | Brazeau · Koivunen · Kindel Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs SJS | |||||
| P2 08:20 | EV | Assist | Khusnutdinov (Geekie, Minten) → 2-1 | Geekie · Khusnutdinov · Minten Lohrei · Brunet | Smith · Dellandrea · Marchment · Toffoli Kesselring · Nurse Nedeljkovic (G) |
| P3 12:00 | PP | Goal | Minten (Peterka, Mittelstadt) → 5-3 | Peterka · Mittelstadt · Hagens · Minten Lohrei | Sherwood · Celebrini Dickinson · Kesselring Nedeljkovic (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Fraser over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Geekie BOS | 76 | 10 | |
| Marat Khusnutdinov BOS | 71 | 10 | |
| Mason Lohrei BOS | 67 | 10 | |
| JJ Peterka BOS | 61 | 10 | |
| Charlie McAvoy BOS | 57 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats