Alex Bump
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 29?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals9 × 3+27
- proj assists12 × 1+12
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots200 × 0.1+20
- PIM0 × 0.05+0
- ice time (min)1099 × 0.01+11
- total70 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24270 = 29/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 70 points is 29 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (8 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Did not play the last 6 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 5 of 16 for PHI — missed 11 games (2026-11-05, 2026-11-08, 2026-11-09, 2026-11-11, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −7.0
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 0.0% shooting on 19 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.6% (23 shots before this season) — that's 2.8 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.8 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.1%, worth PD −7.0 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 17 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 21.7% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:05 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 9 | 12 | 21 | — | 26 | — | 0 | — | 14:20 | — | — | 156 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 22 that is 2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 4 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Couturier PHI | 25 | 4 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 23 | 4 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 14 | 4 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 13 | 4 | |
| Tyson Foerster PHI | 13 | 1 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats