Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 48?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals5 × 3+15
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points8 × 0.5+4
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots108 × 0.1+10.8
- PIM24 × 0.05+1.2
- ice time (min)1939 × 0.01+19.4
- total79 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16679 = 48/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 79 points is 48 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 3.7% shooting on 27 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (392 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 5.6%, worth PD −0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Ducks | 24 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -12 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19:35 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 10.7% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Ducks | 81 | 4 | 28 | 32 | -26 | 16 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 19:53 | 1 | 1 | 137 | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:37 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:35 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4.8% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 24 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -18 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 18:48 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 70 | 7 | 13 | 20 | -32 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 19:55 | 1 | 0 | 63 | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 78 | 8 | 24 | 32 | -3 | 33 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 21:33 | 3 | 0 | 101 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 1 | 8 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 23:05 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 5 | 29 | 34 | — | 32 | — | 9 | — | 21:38 | — | — | 107 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 24 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Philip Broberg (2025-25) · Jamie Drysdale (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · Mattias Samuelsson (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P1 12:46 | EV | Assist | #? (Couturier, Drysdale) → 1-0 | Couturier · Acciari Seeler · Drysdale | Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYR | |||||
| P2 12:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Barkey, Drysdale) → 2-1 | Couturier · Barkey Sanheim · Drysdale | Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Cuylle Gavrikov · Fox Garand (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs MIN | |||||
| P2 14:24 | EV | Assist | #? (Drysdale, Michkov) → 1-3 | Barkey · Michkov Sanheim · Drysdale | Coleman · McCarron · Kaprizov Hughes · Spacek Wallstedt (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 01:06 | EV | Assist | Konecny (Drysdale, Dvorak) → 2-1 | Dvorak · Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| P2 05:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Sanheim, Drysdale) → 3-1 | Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Jamie over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 108 | 10 | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | 86 | 10 | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 79 | 10 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 70 | 10 | |
| Denver Barkey PHI | 68 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats