Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points19 × 0.5+9.5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots75 × 0.1+7.5
- PIM28 × 0.05+1.4
- ice time (min)1232 × 0.01+12.3
- total97 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24297 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 97 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (18 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.1
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 12.5% shooting on 16 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.1% (43 shots before this season) — that's 0.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.1 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 13.0%, worth PD −0.1 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 43 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -6 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 13:24 | 0 | 0 | 43 | 11.6% | 38.9% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 18 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -1 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14:40 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 12.5% | 36.2% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 13 | 27 | 41 | — | 34 | — | 10 | — | 14:52 | — | — | 108 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P1 12:46 | EV | Goal | #? (Couturier, Drysdale) → 1-0 | Couturier · Acciari Seeler · Drysdale | Stromgren · Klapka · Castagna Kuznetsov · Parekh Cooley (G) |
| Nov 5 · @ NYR | |||||
| P2 12:09 | EV | Assist | #? (Barkey, Drysdale) → 2-1 | Couturier · Barkey Sanheim · Drysdale | Bjorkstrand · Tolvanen · Cuylle Gavrikov · Fox Garand (G) |
| Nov 3 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 01:48 | PP | Goal | #? (Martone, Zegras) → 2-3 | Zegras · Michkov · Martone Drysdale | Trenin · Sturm Bogosian · Maatta Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 09:44 | PP | Assist | Michkov (Barkey, Zegras) → 2-3 | Michkov · Zegras · Foerster · Barkey Drysdale | Jenner · Wilson Liljegren · Fehérváry Thompson (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Denver over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 68 | 10 | |
| Sean Couturier PHI | 57 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 52 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 41 | 10 | |
| Nick Seeler PHI | 40 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats