Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 56?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists22 × 1+22
- PP points4 × 0.5+2
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots152 × 0.1+15.2
- PIM48 × 0.05+2.4
- ice time (min)2099 × 0.01+21
- total93 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16693 = 56/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 93 points is 56 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Hot window: 6.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 3.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • +0.9
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 7.9% shooting on 38 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.4% (1017 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals above what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.4 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 7.0%, worth PD +0.9 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 49 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0 | 0 | 72 | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 82 | 9 | 26 | 35 | -4 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 19:34 | 2 | 1 | 121 | 7.4% | 0.0% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 69 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 4 | 32 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 20:09 | 0 | 0 | 110 | 7.3% | 0.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 55 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -22 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:53 | 1 | 1 | 100 | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 80 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 9 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:58 | 1 | 1 | 123 | 5.7% | 0.0% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 81 | 7 | 16 | 23 | -5 | 40 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20:24 | 1 | 0 | 111 | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 81 | 10 | 34 | 44 | -20 | 48 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 23:48 | 3 | 0 | 146 | 6.8% | 0.0% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 82 | 8 | 22 | 30 | -6 | 40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 24:30 | 0 | 0 | 139 | 5.8% | 0.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 81 | 11 | 26 | 37 | 12 | 20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 24:13 | 1 | 1 | 95 | 11.6% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25:00 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 7.9% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 10 | 22 | 32 | — | 48 | — | 3 | — | 22:50 | — | — | 133 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Neal Pionk (2025-25) · Drew Doughty (2025-25) · Hampus Lindholm (2025-25) · Jonas Brodin (2025-25) · Jared Spurgeon (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ EDM | |||||
| P3 11:42 | EV | Goal | #? (#?, Michkov) → 2-2 | Cates · Michkov · Martone Drysdale | Joseph · Formenton · Michaels Emberson · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| Nov 9 · @ VAN | |||||
| P3 19:01 | SH | Goal | #? → 3-1 | Dvorak · Cates Seeler | Boeser · DeBrusk · Pettersson · Rossi · Lekkerimaki Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 05:50 | EV | Assist | #? (Sanheim, Drysdale) → 3-1 | Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| P3 01:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Konecny, Sanheim) → 4-1 | Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P3 15:04 | EV | Assist | Zegras (Dvorak, Sanheim) → 2-3 | Dvorak · Zegras · Foerster Sanheim · Drysdale | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland Werenski · Fabbro Talbot (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Travis over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 108 | 10 | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 100 | 10 | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | 77 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 76 | 10 | |
| Sean Couturier PHI | 74 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats