Christian Dvorak
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 42?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals13 × 3+39
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points12 × 0.5+6
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots124 × 0.1+12.4
- PIM16 × 0.05+0.8
- ice time (min)1509 × 0.01+15.1
- total102 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242102 = 42/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 102 points is 42 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Shooting more: 2.0 SOG/game lately vs 1.4 before — volume is there even if points lag.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 4.0/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 9.7% shooting on 31 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.9% (870 shots before this season) — that's 1.0 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (4.0 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.8%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Coyotes | 78 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 7 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 15:37 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 17.1% | 46.8% |
| 2017-18 | Coyotes | 78 | 15 | 22 | 37 | -19 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 16:26 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 9.9% | 51.4% |
| 2018-19 | Coyotes | 20 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14:23 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 8.0% | 55.3% |
| 2019-20 | Coyotes | 70 | 18 | 20 | 38 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 16:42 | 2 | 1 | 134 | 13.4% | 55.1% |
| 2020-21 | Coyotes | 56 | 17 | 14 | 31 | -11 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 1 | 18:24 | 4 | 0 | 95 | 17.9% | 52.1% |
| 2021-22 | Canadiens | 56 | 11 | 22 | 33 | -19 | 24 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 17:22 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 12.6% | 56.7% |
| 2022-23 | Canadiens | 64 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -12 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 16:52 | 1 | 0 | 88 | 11.4% | 52.0% |
| 2023-24 | Canadiens | 30 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15:32 | 0 | 0 | 35 | 14.3% | 57.8% |
| 2024-25 | Canadiens | 82 | 12 | 21 | 33 | -5 | 16 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 15:15 | 0 | 0 | 104 | 11.5% | 55.8% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 80 | 18 | 33 | 51 | 11 | 27 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 18:28 | 2 | 0 | 151 | 11.9% | 54.5% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 17:58 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 9.7% | 54.7% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 13 | 27 | 40 | — | 26 | — | 8 | — | 16:57 | — | — | 134 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 30 that is -2%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Ryan Strome (2025-25) · Andrew Copp (2025-25) · Christian Dvorak (2025-25) · Sean Couturier (2025-25) · Conor Garland (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 16:49 | PP | Assist | #? (Tippett, Dvorak) → 1-2 | Dvorak · Konecny · Tippett Bonk | Dickinson · Kapanen Ekholm · Mukhamadullin Jarry (G) |
| Nov 9 · @ VAN | |||||
| P1 02:03 | EV | Assist | #? (Dvorak, #?) → 1-0 | Dvorak · Acciari Sanheim · Drysdale | Gallagher · Rossi · Ohgren Schenn · Pettersson Merilainen (G) |
| P2 03:05 | PP | Assist | #? (Michkov, Dvorak) → 2-0 | Dvorak · Zegras · Michkov Jiricek | O'Connor · Sasson Schenn · Brisebois Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 8 · @ CGY | |||||
| P2 15:07 | PP | Assist | #? (Dvorak, Bonk) → 3-2 | Dvorak · Konecny · Foerster Bonk | Backlund · Sharangovich Middleton · Whitecloud Cooley (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 01:06 | EV | Assist | Konecny (Drysdale, Dvorak) → 2-1 | Dvorak · Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Christian over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 100 | 10 | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | 83 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 79 | 10 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 64 | 10 | |
| Travis Konecny PHI | 63 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats