Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 50?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals17 × 3+51
- proj assists27 × 1+27
- PP points15 × 0.5+7.5
- game-winning goals8 × 0.5+4
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots153 × 0.1+15.3
- PIM61 × 0.05+3.1
- ice time (min)1430 × 0.01+14.3
- total122 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242122 = 50/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 122 points is 50 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (11 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Availability: played 6 of 16 for PHI — missed 10 games (2026-10-21, 2026-10-24, 2026-10-27, 2026-10-28, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −1.3
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.3% (1434 shots before this season) — that's 0.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.5%, worth PD −1.3 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | Flyers | 70 | 11 | 17 | 28 | -2 | 49 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14:05 | 0 | 0 | 133 | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| 2017-18 | Flyers | 81 | 24 | 23 | 47 | 17 | 46 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 14:54 | 6 | 2 | 177 | 13.6% | 33.3% |
| 2018-19 | Flyers | 82 | 24 | 25 | 49 | -4 | 40 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 15:16 | 3 | 1 | 182 | 13.2% | 31.8% |
| 2019-20 | Flyers | 66 | 24 | 37 | 61 | -1 | 28 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 16:48 | 3 | 0 | 141 | 17.0% | 49.0% |
| 2020-21 | Flyers | 50 | 11 | 23 | 34 | -5 | 26 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 15:54 | 1 | 0 | 100 | 11.0% | 33.3% |
| 2021-22 | Flyers | 79 | 16 | 36 | 52 | -23 | 77 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 17:37 | 3 | 0 | 220 | 7.3% | 41.9% |
| 2022-23 | Flyers | 60 | 31 | 30 | 61 | -12 | 77 | 5 | 15 | 3 | 20:07 | 5 | 0 | 191 | 16.2% | 46.7% |
| 2023-24 | Flyers | 76 | 33 | 35 | 68 | 4 | 67 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 19:50 | 5 | 0 | 244 | 13.5% | 40.2% |
| 2024-25 | Flyers | 82 | 24 | 52 | 76 | -17 | 53 | 8 | 17 | 1 | 20:36 | 3 | 0 | 188 | 12.8% | 39.0% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 77 | 27 | 41 | 68 | 14 | 59 | 2 | 14 | 1 | 19:05 | 2 | 0 | 168 | 16.1% | 37.7% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -4 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:01 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 10.0% | 66.7% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 17 | 27 | 44 | — | 51 | — | 14 | — | 16:04 | — | — | 147 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 29 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9 · @ VAN | |||||
| P2 03:05 | PP | Goal | #? (Michkov, Dvorak) → 2-0 | Dvorak · Zegras · Michkov Jiricek | O'Connor · Sasson Schenn · Brisebois Merilainen (G) |
| Nov 1 · vs UTA | |||||
| P2 01:06 | EV | Goal | Konecny (Drysdale, Dvorak) → 2-1 | Dvorak · Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Trocheck · Crouse · Cooley Duda · Simashev Vejmelka (G) |
| P3 01:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Konecny, Sanheim) → 4-1 | Konecny · Zegras Sanheim · Drysdale | Schmaltz · Keller · Guenther Weegar · Sergachev Vejmelka (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Travis over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 97 | 10 | |
| Trevor Zegras PHI | 81 | 10 | |
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 81 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 72 | 10 | |
| Tyson Foerster PHI | 66 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats