Trevor Zegras
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 60?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals18 × 3+54
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points28 × 0.5+14
- game-winning goals4 × 0.5+2
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots180 × 0.1+18
- PIM104 × 0.05+5.2
- ice time (min)1548 × 0.01+15.5
- total145 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242145 = 60/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 145 points is 60 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (21 games so far). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 1.8 SOG/game lately vs 2.9 before — chances have dried up.
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 11.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for PHI.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 8.9% shooting on 45 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 12.5% (756 shots before this season) — that's 1.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (5.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.0%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-21 | Ducks | 24 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:24 | 0 | 0 | 53 | 5.7% | 43.8% |
| 2021-22 | Ducks | 75 | 23 | 38 | 61 | -21 | 50 | 9 | 17 | 0 | 17:54 | 5 | 1 | 181 | 12.7% | 39.9% |
| 2022-23 | Ducks | 81 | 23 | 42 | 65 | -24 | 88 | 4 | 17 | 0 | 18:50 | 3 | 2 | 184 | 12.5% | 41.4% |
| 2023-24 | Ducks | 31 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -1 | 30 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 17:05 | 1 | 0 | 73 | 8.2% | 38.4% |
| 2024-25 | Ducks | 57 | 12 | 20 | 32 | -8 | 23 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 17:02 | 1 | 0 | 98 | 12.2% | 36.6% |
| 2025-26 | Flyers | 81 | 26 | 41 | 67 | 0 | 62 | 10 | 23 | 0 | 18:43 | 5 | 1 | 167 | 15.6% | 34.1% |
| 2026-27 | Flyers | 21 | 4 | 10 | 14 | -8 | 26 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 18:26 | 1 | 0 | 45 | 8.9% | 41.4% |
| 84-G proj | Flyers | 84 | 18 | 36 | 54 | — | 81 | — | 26 | — | 17:15 | — | — | 165 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: William Karlsson (2024-24) · Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · Pierre-Luc Dubois (2025-25) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Kaapo Kakko (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 · vs MIN | |||||
| P3 01:48 | PP | Assist | #? (Martone, Zegras) → 2-3 | Zegras · Michkov · Martone Drysdale | Trenin · Sturm Bogosian · Maatta Wallstedt (G) |
| Oct 28 · @ WSH | |||||
| P3 09:44 | PP | Assist | Michkov (Barkey, Zegras) → 2-3 | Michkov · Zegras · Foerster · Barkey Drysdale | Jenner · Wilson Liljegren · Fehérváry Thompson (G) |
| Oct 27 · vs CBJ | |||||
| P3 15:04 | EV | Goal | Zegras (Dvorak, Sanheim) → 2-3 | Dvorak · Zegras · Foerster Sanheim · Drysdale | Monahan · Nichushkin · Garland Werenski · Fabbro Talbot (G) |
| P3 19:49 | EV | Assist | Drysdale (Foerster, Zegras) → 3-3 | Dvorak · Michkov · Zegras · Foerster Sanheim · Drysdale | Coyle · Sillinger · Olivier Gudbranson · Severson Talbot (G) |
| Oct 24 · vs ANA | |||||
| P1 13:59 | PP | Assist | Michkov (Drysdale, Zegras) → 1-0 | Michkov · Zegras · Foerster · Martone Drysdale | Granlund LaCombe · Warren Dostal (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Trevor over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Drysdale PHI | 86 | 10 | |
| Christian Dvorak PHI | 83 | 10 | |
| Travis Sanheim PHI | 77 | 10 | |
| Travis Konecny PHI | 60 | 6 | |
| Oliver Bonk PHI | 55 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats