Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 32?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals10 × 3+30
- proj assists18 × 1+18
- PP points10 × 0.5+5
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots109 × 0.1+10.9
- PIM20 × 0.05+1
- ice time (min)1195 × 0.01+12
- total77 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24277 = 32/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 77 points is 32 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (17 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.5 SOG/game lately vs 2.0 before — chances have dried up.
- Availability: played 3 of 12 for SEA — missed 9 games (2026-10-22, 2026-10-24, 2026-10-28, 2026-10-30, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check underperforming O/U ▼ −2.8
- TRADE VALUE: BELOW PACE — mildly. Cheap production relative to the underlying play.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.3% (111 shots before this season) — that's 2.1 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (3.1 expected goals). under pace. His shrunk talent rate is 11.7%, worth PD −2.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Predators | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:35 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 2025-26 | Predators | 71 | 17 | 13 | 30 | -3 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 12:19 | 1 | 0 | 103 | 16.5% | 39.8% |
| 2026-27 | Predators | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 14:03 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5.0% | 35.2% |
| 2026-27 | Kraken | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:03 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| 84-G proj | Kraken | 84 | 10 | 18 | 28 | — | 30 | — | 9 | — | 14:37 | — | — | 124 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7 · vs NYR | |||||
| P3 15:02 | EV | Assist | #? (Catton, Wood) → 3-4 | Kakko · Wood · Catton Larsson | Zibanejad · Lafrenière · Perreault Gavrikov · Fox Korpisalo (G) |
| Oct 24 · @ PIT | |||||
| P1 09:24 | EV | Assist | Stamkos (Wood, O'Reilly) → 1-0 | Wood · O'Reilly · Stamkos Perbix · Skjei | Robertson · Lizotte · Kuzmenko Letang · Carlile Silovs (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Matthew over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg NSH | 65 | 7 | |
| Nils Hoglander NSH | 46 | 7 | |
| Roman Josi NSH | 33 | 7 | |
| Brady Skjei NSH | 31 | 7 | |
| Jayden Struble NSH | 28 | 6 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats