Carter Yakemchuk
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 44?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals6 × 3+18
- proj assists16 × 1+16
- PP points12 × 0.5+6
- game-winning goals6 × 0.5+3
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots132 × 0.1+13.2
- PIM36 × 0.05+1.8
- ice time (min)1505 × 0.01+15.1
- total73 pool points · an elite defenseman season scores 16673 = 44/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best defensemen in the NHL — an elite season scores about 166 points, and that is what 100 means. So 73 points is 44 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (14 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Minutes are shrinking: 17:06/game over the last 6, down 18% from 20:53 earlier in the season.
- Did not play the last 3 games (healthy scratch or injury — check the club report before rostering).
- Availability: played 10 of 16 for OTT — missed 6 games (2026-11-01, 2026-11-07, 2026-11-10, 2026-11-12, …).
- Ironman warning: multiple absences already — treat nightly projections for this player as low-confidence.
- Not on the NHL Status Report — recent absences were healthy scratches or coach's decisions unless a wire note says otherwise.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 4.5% shooting on 22 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 6.9% (5 shots before this season) — that's 0.5 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (1.5 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 6.3%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Senators | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 14:32 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| 2026-27 | Senators | 14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 17:55 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4.5% | 0.0% |
| 84-G proj | Senators | 84 | 6 | 16 | 22 | — | 42 | — | 5 | — | 18:27 | — | — | 117 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 21 that is 4%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Goals — with the line
Lines shown for the 7 of 10 recent games inside the league's tracking archive.
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 · vs NYR | |||||
| P2 11:21 | EV | Assist | Cozens (Batherson, Yakemchuk) → 4-1 | Stützle · Batherson · Cozens Yakemchuk · Kleven · Sanderson | Laba · Cuylle Durzi · Fox · Pettersson Garand (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Carter over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Kleven OTT | 73 | 9 | |
| Tim Stützle OTT | 67 | 10 | |
| Dylan Cozens OTT | 66 | 10 | |
| Claude Giroux OTT | 64 | 10 | |
| Drake Batherson OTT | 63 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats