Alex DeBrincat
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 73?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals27 × 3+81
- proj assists36 × 1+36
- PP points22 × 0.5+11
- game-winning goals0 × 0.5+0
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots296 × 0.1+29.6
- PIM44 × 0.05+2.2
- ice time (min)1660 × 0.01+16.6
- total176 pool points · an elite forward season scores 242176 = 73/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 176 points is 73 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (19 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Cold window: 1.7 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 10.0/10 baseline — pace has fallen off.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 16 of 16 for DET.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U ▼ −6.4
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.4% shooting on 67 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 14.5% (2014 shots before this season) — that's 2.7 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (9.7 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.4%, worth PD −6.4 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-18 | Blackhawks | 82 | 28 | 24 | 52 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 12 | 0 | 14:48 | 1 | 0 | 181 | 15.5% | 42.4% |
| 2018-19 | Blackhawks | 82 | 41 | 35 | 76 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 24 | 0 | 17:42 | 3 | 1 | 220 | 18.6% | 45.7% |
| 2019-20 | Blackhawks | 70 | 18 | 27 | 45 | -10 | 15 | 10 | 16 | 0 | 17:30 | 4 | 1 | 207 | 8.7% | 35.0% |
| 2020-21 | Blackhawks | 52 | 32 | 24 | 56 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 1 | 20:32 | 7 | 3 | 155 | 20.6% | 40.0% |
| 2021-22 | Blackhawks | 82 | 41 | 37 | 78 | -13 | 19 | 14 | 28 | 0 | 20:51 | 6 | 4 | 270 | 15.2% | 37.5% |
| 2022-23 | Senators | 82 | 27 | 39 | 66 | -31 | 45 | 11 | 30 | 0 | 19:00 | 6 | 2 | 263 | 10.3% | 52.6% |
| 2023-24 | Red Wings | 82 | 27 | 40 | 67 | 1 | 34 | 11 | 19 | 0 | 17:54 | 1 | 0 | 237 | 11.4% | 42.1% |
| 2024-25 | Red Wings | 82 | 39 | 31 | 70 | -13 | 29 | 13 | 29 | 0 | 17:52 | 4 | 1 | 244 | 16.0% | 44.8% |
| 2025-26 | Red Wings | 82 | 41 | 44 | 85 | 8 | 19 | 15 | 23 | 0 | 18:30 | 6 | 2 | 287 | 14.3% | 38.0% |
| 2026-27 | Red Wings | 20 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 19:42 | 0 | 0 | 69 | 10.1% | 28.6% |
| 84-G proj | Red Wings | 84 | 27 | 36 | 63 | — | 44 | — | 23 | — | 17:59 | — | — | 226 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 28 that is -1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Jared McCann (2025-25) · Brayden Point (2025-25) · Bryan Rust (2025-25) · Sam Reinhart (2025-25) · Auston Matthews (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Time | ST | Type | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 · @ FLA | |||||
| P2 01:26 | EV | Goal | DeBrincat (Arvidsson, Faulk) → 2-1 | Compher · Arvidsson · DeBrincat · Rasmussen · Leonard · Finnie Faulk · Englund · Wallinder · Johansson | Verhaeghe · Reinhart · Bennett · Tkachuk · Tkachuk · Vilmanis Kulikov · Gudas · Ekblad · Forsling Markstrom (G) |
| Oct 29 · vs CHI | |||||
| P2 07:31 | EV | Assist | Arvidsson (Wallinder, DeBrincat) → 1-1 | Arvidsson · Finnie · DeBrincat Wallinder · Faulk | Moore · Kane · Nazar Rinzel · Kaiser Knight (G) |
| P3 15:26 | EV | Assist | Arvidsson (DeBrincat, Compher) → 3-1 | Arvidsson · Compher · DeBrincat Englund · Johansson | Kantserov · Kane · Nazar Kaiser · Levshunov Knight (G) |
| Oct 26 · @ EDM | |||||
| P2 08:35 | PP | Assist | Arvidsson (Raymond, DeBrincat) → 1-1 | Raymond · Arvidsson · Larkin · DeBrincat Seider | Michaels · McDavid Bouchard · Walman Jarry (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Alex over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Finnie DET | 159 | 10 | |
| Viktor Arvidsson DET | 122 | 10 | |
| Moritz Seider DET | 104 | 10 | |
| Ben Chiarot DET | 58 | 10 | |
| Justin Faulk DET | 58 | 10 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats