Aliaksei Protas
Points by season
Career NHL points, ending with the 84-game projection (violet).
Pool value
Projected full-season fantasy worth.
why 40?
Each row is one fantasy category turned into points over a full 84-game season. Add the rows up and that is his total fantasy worth.
- proj goals14 × 3+42
- proj assists29 × 1+29
- PP points0 × 0.5+0
- game-winning goals5 × 0.5+2.5
- OT goals0 × 0.25+0
- shots105 × 0.1+10.5
- PIM11 × 0.05+0.6
- ice time (min)1363 × 0.01+13.6
- total98 pool points · an elite forward season scores 24298 = 40/100
Weights follow what the average fantasy league actually counts: goals at 3× assists (the universal core), power-play points and game-winners at half weight (common extra categories), OT goals, shots and PIM small (many leagues skip them), and ice time as a quiet availability bonus. The scale: add up a whole season of those categories and compare against the best forwards in the NHL — an elite season scores about 242 points, and that is what 100 means. So 98 points is 40 out of a perfect fantasy season at his position. Defensemen and forwards are graded on separate scales because the D slot can only be filled by a defenseman. Goals and assists come from the backtested season model; the rest ride your own season-to-date pace over 84 games (16 games so far — small sample, secondary lines will move as roles settle). Hits/blocks are excluded: the free NHL feeds don't publish full-season totals, and we don't invent them.
The Situation
- Off the net: 0.8 SOG/game lately vs 1.7 before — chances have dried up.
- Hot window: 10.0 pts/10 over the last 6 vs 2.9/10 season baseline.
- Every night: in the lineup for all of the team's last 10 games.
- Availability: every game this season — 13 of 13 for WSH.
Every line is measured from our own boxscore ledger; absence reasons from the NHL Status Report and our transaction wire only — no insider guessing.
Finishing check on pace O/U • −0.8
- TRADE VALUE: AT PACE — trade value is what the numbers say it is.
- 10.0% shooting on 20 shots against HIS OWN career baseline of 13.0% (531 shots before this season) — that's 0.6 goals below what his shot volume normally buys for him (2.6 expected goals). on pace. His shrunk talent rate is 12.2%, worth PD −0.8 goals per 84 over/under his own standard.
- His goals track his shot volume almost exactly — what you see is what you have.
Model: goals vs shot volume vs live league position baselines; talent SH% is an empirical-Bayes shrinkage of the season…
His shooting talent is estimated by shrinking his season shooting percentage toward his league position mean in proportion to sample size (kappa pseudo-shots prior), then projecting the gap over 84 games at his current shot volume. Small samples stay near zero — the number only moves when the evidence does.
The method follows published hockey-analytics research: a shooter is judged against his own career shooting percentage, because a player's own career rate predicts his next goals better than any league average (“Expected by Whom? A Skill-Adjusted Expected Goals Model for NHL Shooters and Goaltenders,” arXiv:2511.07703). Thin careers (rookies) shrink toward the league mean for the position, and the season number is shrunk toward the player's own anchor with empirical-Bayes weights — Nandakumar & Jensen (2019), Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application, doi:10.1146/annurev-statistics-030718-105202. This section is about the gap between luck and his pace, not talent.
Season stats
NHL regular-season totals, season by season. The 84-G proj line extends the current season with our public model — methodology in the caption below the table.
| Season | Team | GP | G | A | P | +/- | PIM | PPG | PPP | SHG | TOI/GP | GWG | OTG | S | S% | FOW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-22 | Capitals | 33 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11:50 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 8.8% | 44.8% |
| 2022-23 | Capitals | 58 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:31 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 4.8% | 32.8% |
| 2023-24 | Capitals | 78 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:45 | 1 | 0 | 113 | 5.3% | 40.4% |
| 2024-25 | Capitals | 76 | 30 | 36 | 66 | 40 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 16:27 | 6 | 1 | 142 | 21.1% | 24.0% |
| 2025-26 | Capitals | 76 | 25 | 27 | 52 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18:14 | 5 | 0 | 159 | 15.7% | 44.8% |
| 2026-27 | Capitals | 17 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 9.5% | 57.1% |
| 84-G proj | Capitals | 84 | 14 | 29 | 43 | — | 25 | — | 1 | — | 15:47 | — | — | 125 | — | — |
84-G proj — current pace blended with the player's own history (recent seasons weighted heaviest), mixed with a similarity projection from historical players with comparable profiles, then adjusted for the aging curve (league-average peak at 27; decline after) — at age 25 that is 1%. Dashes mark stats the model doesn't project.
Comparable player-seasons: Trevor Zegras (2025-25) · William Karlsson (2024-24) · Boone Jenner (2025-25) · Patric Hornqvist (2021-21) · Jack Quinn (2025-25).
Goals — with the line
| Date | Opp | Type | When | Goal | His line | Opp ice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | @ NJD | Assist | 02:11 · P2 · EV | Dubois (Protas, St. Ivany) → 2-1 | Protas · Dubois · Tuch St. Ivany · Hutson | Bratt · Gritsyuk · Hughes Hughes · Siegenthaler Hellebuyck (G) |
| Nov 10 | @ OTT | Assist | 00:35 · P1 · EV | Roy (Chychrun, Protas) → 1-0 | Protas · Kyrou · Dubois Roy · Chychrun | Pinto · Batherson · Cousins Zub · Sanderson Ersson (G) |
| Nov 7 | vs FLA | Goal | 14:55 · P2 · EV | Protas (Dubois, Leonard) → 3-2 | Leonard · Protas · Dubois Ivany · Hutson | Bennett · Reinhart · Imama Jones · Mikkola Schmid (G) |
| Nov 7 | vs FLA | Assist | 04:42 · P3 · EV | Dubois (Protas) → 4-2 | Leonard · Protas · Dubois Roy · Chychrun | Reinhart · Verhaeghe · Schwindt Kulikov · Balinskis Schmid (G) |
| Oct 29 | @ NSH | Assist | 04:15 · P2 · EV | Jenner (Protas, Fehérváry) → 2-1 | Protas · Jenner · Sourdif Roy · Fehérváry | Kerfoot · Drury · Hoglander Hague · Hunt Saros (G) |
Line mates
Teammates sharing the most ice time with Aliaksei over the last 10 games — reconstructed shift-by-shift from the NHL's official timing feed (goalies excluded).
| Player | Shared min | GP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Fehervary WSH | 73 | 10 | |
| Tom Wilson WSH | 72 | 10 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois WSH | 66 | 6 | |
| Jakob Chychrun WSH | 56 | 10 | |
| Matt Roy WSH | 49 | 7 |
Data via the public NHL API · 2026 Pro Hockey Stats